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Common Probability Errors to Avoid
When improbable events happen
While particular improbable events are improbable, the chance of any improbable event happening at all is highly probable.
- Your chances of getting struck by lightning are almost zero. But with so many people walking around and so many storms, it has to happen to someone sooner or later.
- The same is true for clusters of improbable events. The chance of any individual getting struck by lightning more than once is even closer to zero than the chance of it happening once. Yet when we look at all the people in the world, it’s certain to happen to someone.
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The spiral of silence
The spiral of silence is a human communication theory developed by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in the 1960s.
The theory explains how societies form shared opinions an how we make deci...
How the spiral of silence works
According to the theory of the spiral of silence, our desire to fit in with others means we will speak up if we think our opinion will be popular, or avoid expressing an opinion if it is unpopular.
The feedback loop means each time someone voices a popular opinion, the positive feedback from the group reinforces the feeling that it is safe to do so. Conversely, receiving a negative response for a divergent opinion will strengthen the view that they should avoid expressing it.
The implications of the spiral of silence
- The result of the spiral of silence is that few will publicly voice a minority opinion and will instead will nurse it in private.
- The possibility of conflict makes us less likely to voice any opinion. If we want to know what people think, we need to remove the possibility of negative consequences.
- When we see a sudden change in mainstream opinions, it can be because of a shift in what is acceptable to express, not what people really think.
- Highly vocal people of a minority opinion can make their views seem far more prevalent and acceptable than they really are.
“Curiosity is antifragile, like an addiction; magnified by attempts to satisfy it.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
25 Pages A Day
For developing the habits of reading, many follow the strategy of reading 25 pages a day, which can create your interest at a starting pace of time.
But while reading, if one finds reading joyful and interesting one can jump the stipulated limit of pages, accordingly.
Benefits Of Reading: Improved Insights
- Reading a few pages before sleeping or during a break opens the windows of the mind, nourishing the brain and promoting imagination and positivity.
- At 25 pages a day, an average person is reading 9125 pages in a year promoting the enhancing of skills, thoughts, vocabulary and knowledge. Plus reading is an addiction(albeit a good one!).
- Reading different genres develops the various regions of our brain, elevating innovative thoughts and cross-connection of fresh ideas.
Wanting a simpler life
When we desire a simpler life, we normally mean we want products and services to have fewer steps, fewer controls, fewer options, less to consider. But we also want all the feature...
Conceptual models
A conceptual model is the underlying belief structure about how something works.
For example, on many computers, the process of dragging and dropping files into a folder seems simple because people already understand physical files and folders. But understanding it is only possible because of an effective conceptual model. A computer does not have files and folders and will store data in multiple places.
The complexity of a structure is all in the mind. When we want something to be simpler, we only need a better conceptual model of it.
Tesler’s law of the conservation of complexity
"The total complexity of a system is a constant. If you make a user’s interaction with a system simpler, the complexity behind the scenes increases."