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Common Probability Errors to Avoid
While particular improbable events are improbable, the chance of any improbable event happening at all is highly probable.
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The spiral of silence is a human communication theory developed by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in the 1960s.
The theory explains how societies form shared opinions an how we make deci...
According to the theory of the spiral of silence, our desire to fit in with others means we will speak up if we think our opinion will be popular, or avoid expressing an opinion if it is unpopular.
The feedback loop means each time someone voices a popular opinion, the positive feedback from the group reinforces the feeling that it is safe to do so. Conversely, receiving a negative response for a divergent opinion will strengthen the view that they should avoid expressing it.
“Curiosity is antifragile, like an addiction; magnified by attempts to satisfy it.”
For developing the habits of reading, many follow the strategy of reading 25 pages a day, which can create your interest at a starting pace of time.
But while reading, if one finds reading joyful and interesting one can jump the stipulated limit of pages, accordingly.
When we desire a simpler life, we normally mean we want products and services to have fewer steps, fewer controls, fewer options, less to consider. But we also want all the feature...
A conceptual model is the underlying belief structure about how something works.
For example, on many computers, the process of dragging and dropping files into a folder seems simple because people already understand physical files and folders. But understanding it is only possible because of an effective conceptual model. A computer does not have files and folders and will store data in multiple places.
The complexity of a structure is all in the mind. When we want something to be simpler, we only need a better conceptual model of it.
"The total complexity of a system is a constant. If you make a user’s interaction with a system simpler, the complexity behind the scenes increases."