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Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise

Bias All-Around

  • Many experiments show that people can be biased and even irrational in making decisions. 
  • While we believe that logic, facts, data go in any decision, in reality, they can be emotional and biased in invisible ways.

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IDEA EXTRACTED FROM:

Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise

Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise

https://bothsidesofthetable.com/dont-be-fooled-by-your-own-expertise-41062da064f

bothsidesofthetable.com

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Key Ideas

Being Fooled By Data

Data can be used to prove anything.
People can be easily convinced by using data that, when analyzed closely, turns out to be dubious, without foundation or any real research.

Made Up Data

  • Data can be easily made up to serve ulterior motives, which are far from the truth.
  • Biased data finds its way out and is generally passed around as facts.
  • Some critical thinking and skepticism are required before any data is accepted for making decisions.

The Narrative Fallacy

People normally create a narrative based on their past and are sure that their predictions will match the way things will work out in the future. This is not usually the case, and it leads to wrong decisions.

Bias All-Around

  • Many experiments show that people can be biased and even irrational in making decisions. 
  • While we believe that logic, facts, data go in any decision, in reality, they can be emotional and biased in invisible ways.

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Data is Not Reality
  • We see organizations and the engineers who work in them steering towards big data, so it is commonly assumed that data means acumen and direction.
  • Any Data, by itself, does not bring clarity. Data is just information, not reality. It does not represent anything in the field of actuality.
  • Data is also, never complete. Getting more and more Data does not equate to getting more clarity.
Incomplete Data is Misleading

Our brains like to fill up incomplete information based on our prejudice and confirmation bias.

As all data is inherently incomplete, we use our minds to fill the missing information, based on the existing data we have, and that can go obverse.

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Why decision-making blunders are made

Each day, we automatically make thousands of choices, from what time to wake up to what to eat.

The problem with this automatic processing is that there are instances when we jump to concl...

6 of the largest decision-making blunders
  1. Sunk-cost fallacy. Present yourself with the new options at hand -- without considering the sunk cost.

  2. Narrow framing. When we're in situations that will repeat themselves over time, we should take a step back and play a game of averages.

  3. Emotionally driven decisions. Hold off on making important decisions when you are in a bad mood.

  4.  Confirmation bias. Always look for conflicting evidence and then make judgments based on more well-rounded information.

  5. Ego depletion. When we're drained, physically or mentally, we're less likely to think critically.

  6. The halo effect says that once we like somebody, we're more likely to look for his or her positive characteristics and avoid the negative ones. Realize your biases toward certain people and do what you can to eliminate them.

Information that matches our beliefs

We surround ourselves with it: We tend to like people who think like us; if we agree with someone's beliefs, we're more likely to be friends with them.

This makes sense, but it means ...

The "swimmer's body illusion"

It's a thinking mistake and it occurs when we confuse selection factors with results. 

Professional swimmers don't have perfect bodies because they train extensively. Rather, they are good swimmers because of their physiques.

The sunk cost fallacy

It plays on this tendency of ours to emphasize loss over gain.

The term sunk cost refers to any cost that has been paid already and cannot be recovered. The reason we can't ignore the cost, even though it's already been paid, is that we're wired to feel loss far more strongly than gain.

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Storytelling is essential to living

Stories are the primary way through which we make sense of our world. We explain ideas by telling stories.

Even science uses storytelling when they use data of the physical world to ex...

The brain’s reward system

When the brain pieces separate bits of an image together to form a coherent picture, it is known as pattern recognition. Once we recognize a pattern, it can spark a degree of pleasure, often described as that "a-ha" moment.

Where science and story meet

Despite the verities of science, we feel compelled to tell stories that venture beyond the facts.

When we first see separate ideas, we feel obliged to find a relationship between the ideas to form a coherent picture. Once a possible relationship has been established, we feel the need to come up with an explanation.

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Knowledge exists on a barometer
Continuously shifting depending on who you are talking to. Treating knowledge as concrete(a noun)  suggests there is a specific point at which what you know becomes an absolute trut...

Knowing more about a subject doesn’t necessarily mean that you are right. We need to be able to measure the quality of information we possess.

Knowing more about a subject doesn’t necessarily mean that you are right. We need to be able to measure the quality of information we possess.
Attentional Capital (AC)
AC=a measurement used to calculate how we arrive at a place of knowledge.
  • A high AC: you have obtained your information through focused and objective research and would be open to changing your position if presented with sufficient evidence.
  • A low AC: you reactively believe whatever comes across your news feed and hold onto your beliefs in a dogmatic and tribal manner.

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Time-management tools
They offer the promise that you would gain certain control over your life, but there's no guarantee it will work.
When it fails to work, most people try another app or another technique.&nbs...
Uncritical Productivity

Pursuing productivity for its own sake is counter-productive. 

Most people feel able to complete more tasks when they start using time-management tools, but they don’t bear in mind that they can’t keep increasing their productivity forever, and they commit to more and more. In a few weeks, they are more productive but still frustrated. 

Balancing act

Back when more people worked in factories, laborers did not have to deal with time management. At the assembly line, time was managed for you.

Freedom comes with responsibility: you have to think a lot more about how you manage your time.

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Not backed up by science
Not backed up by science

While popular, researchers say there is a serious lack of evidence to back up mindfulness apps, even though they are increasingly perceived as proven treatments for mental health. 

Seeking scientific validation

A handful of studies have been published on the efficacy of mindfulness apps, thanks in part to Headspace, one of the most popular apps in the field. In hopes of getting its app scientifically validated, the organization has partnered on more than 60 studies with 35 academic institutions. In the meantime, in lieu of research proving that apps work, marketers tend to draw misleading, but attractive claims.

The paradox of mindfulness apps

Mindfulness disrupts unhelpful habits. If you get distracted easily or have addictions, mindfulness helps curb these habits. But, in contrast, apps become popular and profitable by getting users lightly addicted to repetitive use. So, can an app really treat addiction, or is it inherently part of the problem? As of now, we don’t know the answer to that question.

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Habit-formation apps are aspirational tools

They're less about distilling your life into a series of data points and more about becoming your ideal self: If you use their app, you too can become a person who practices good habits. You can be...

The 4 tendencies when it comes to habit formation:
  • upholders: disciplined and respond to both internal and external expectations;
  • obligers :can’t keep commitments to themselves but respond to expectations from others; 
  • questioners: ask why and can keep a habit if they understand the logic reasoning; 
  • rebels: hate being told what to do by others, so it has to be something they want to do.
Depending on your habit-formation tendency, habit-tracking apps may or may not work for you. 
Habit apps use the psychology of habit formation
  • Many rely on a “streak” feature: they track how many consecutive days you’ve completed the habit;
  • Other apps offer accountability features to pressure you into completing your goal; 
  • Some apps turn habit formation into a game: The app rewards users who complete their habits with badges and other virtual incentives.

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Jumping into Conclusions
Jumping to conclusions is a common phenomenon, where people prematurely decide and finalize something, without having sufficient information or choosing not to consider it.
Jumping into Conclusions: Examples
  • Inference-observation confusion: An assumption made that may or may not be correct. Example: Concluding that a guy is rich, based on the car he drives.
  • Fortune-Telling: Assumption of knowing exactly what will happen in the future.
  • Mind Reading: Assuming based on how to have read someone's mind and concluded something which may not be true.
  • Extreme Extrapolation: Finding a minor clue and making something major out of it.
  • Overgeneralization: Copy-pasting a piece of knowledge over something that you think is related, but is not.
  • Labeling: Stereotyping a set of people based on their likes and dislikes.
Why We Jump to Conclusions

The reason people jump to conclusions is the fact that they find it easy.

Fact-checking and 100 percent accuracy on everything they see or observe consume way too much time for a normal person.

Taking mental shortcuts is the path most people choose to jump to conclusions.

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