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Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise

https://bothsidesofthetable.com/dont-be-fooled-by-your-own-expertise-41062da064f

bothsidesofthetable.com

Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise
I am wired to discount people who have total assuredness in their point-of-view, have dogmatic positions or use data as a crutch or substitute for logic. I appreciate people who have strong opinions or conviction but expect them to constantly be testing their opinions and refining their approaches as they encounter new people, facts or logic.

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Being Fooled By Data

Being Fooled By Data
Data can be used to prove anything.
People can be easily convinced by using data that, when analyzed closely, turns out to be dubious, without foundation or any real research.

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Made Up Data

Made Up Data
  • Data can be easily made up to serve ulterior motives, which are far from the truth.
  • Biased data finds its way out and is generally passed around as facts.
  • Some critical thinking and skepticism are required before any data is accepted for making decisions.

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The Narrative Fallacy

The Narrative Fallacy

People normally create a narrative based on their past and are sure that their predictions will match the way things will work out in the future. This is not usually the case, and it leads to wrong decisions.

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Bias All-Around

Bias All-Around
  • Many experiments show that people can be biased and even irrational in making decisions. 
  • While we believe that logic, facts, data go in any decision, in reality, they can be emotional and biased in invisible ways.

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Beau Lotto

"There is no inherent value in any piece of data because all information is meaningless in itself. Why? Because in..."

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Data is Not Reality

  • We see organizations and the engineers who work in them steering towards big data, so it is commonly assumed that data means acumen and direction.
  • Any Data, by itself, does not bring clarity. Data is just information, not reality. It does not represent anything in the field of actuality.
  • Data is also, never complete. Getting more and more Data does not equate to getting more clarity.

Incomplete Data is Misleading

Our brains like to fill up incomplete information based on our prejudice and confirmation bias.

As all data is inherently incomplete, we use our minds to fill the missing information, based on the existing data we have, and that can go obverse.

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Storytelling is essential to living

Stories are the primary way through which we make sense of our world. We explain ideas by telling stories.

Even science uses storytelling when they use data of the physical world to ex...

Where science and story meet

Despite the verities of science, we feel compelled to tell stories that venture beyond the facts.

When we first see separate ideas, we feel obliged to find a relationship between the ideas to form a coherent picture. Once a possible relationship has been established, we feel the need to come up with an explanation.

The brain’s reward system

When the brain pieces separate bits of an image together to form a coherent picture, it is known as pattern recognition. Once we recognize a pattern, it can spark a degree of pleasure, often described as that "a-ha" moment.

Information that matches our beliefs

We surround ourselves with it: We tend to like people who think like us; if we agree with someone's beliefs, we're more likely to be friends with them.

This makes sense, but it means ...

The "swimmer's body illusion"

It's a thinking mistake and it occurs when we confuse selection factors with results. 

Professional swimmers don't have perfect bodies because they train extensively. Rather, they are good swimmers because of their physiques.

The sunk cost fallacy

It plays on this tendency of ours to emphasize loss over gain.

The term sunk cost refers to any cost that has been paid already and cannot be recovered. The reason we can't ignore the cost, even though it's already been paid, is that we're wired to feel loss far more strongly than gain.