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How the Very Best Strategists Decide
Two strategies
When it comes to setting strategy, there are benefits to both popular and loner strategies.
- Popular strategies are those that are identified by the crowds. The more people that choose a strategy, the better the strategy performs.
- Loner strategies are those that are identified by only one person. If you want to outperform the crowd, you've got to do something the group isn't doing.
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Key Ideas
Outperforming the crowd
If you want to outperform the crowd, learn the following two essential skills.
- Generate ideas by broadening your decision frame.
- You must be able to distinguish between good and bad loner strategies. It is best done by embracing critical thinking.
Broadening the Frame
When we need to make a decision, we tend to ask "What should we do?" However, it narrows our thinking to one right decision.
If we ask the question: "What could we do?" it broadens our decision-making frame, because we can consider multiple futures. Could ask what if, what else, and why not.
For example: Ask what would be the equivalent in your industry of something that’s working well in another.
Embracing Critical Thinking
Strategy development and internal reviews often center on precedents, trends, and due diligence. They address"what will happen." Change the question to "what may happen" :
- Role-play other parties.
- Listen to assumptions in the way a strategy is supposed to work.
- Watch out for confirmation bias, overconfidence, survivor bias, and groupthink.
- Forecast your competitors' results.
- Beware of missing pieces in the tools you use.
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If you only allow yourself your vice while you’re simultaneously being virtuous, you’ll spend more time doing things that are good for you and less time doing the “bad” things.
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Take things one at a time
Next time you’re faced with a problem with many possible answers, pinpoint your end goals and then come up with a solution for each.
This is likely to lead to the generation of a diverse set of options covering multiple categories of solutions.
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The Art of Negative Visualization
This is a stoic lesson, to visualize failure in advance.
It helps because if you imagine failure you start seeing all the ways that have led to that result. And you can start actively working on addressing and mitigating them in advance.
The ‘Draw-Down Period’
Before he would jump into an idea and go full steam, take a reflective period to step back ask yourself: "What do I really have here? Do I actually have something? What am I hoping to accomplish?”
6 more ideas
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Key Idea
A checklist for faster, better decisions
- Write down 3 existing company goals impacted by the decision;
- Write down at least 3 realistic alternatives;
- Write down the most important information you...