Impact bias is the tendency to overestimate the hedonic impact of future events.
For example, consider two groups of people where one group won the lottery, and the other group became paraplegics. Data shows people of both groups are equally happy a year after the event.
A recent study suggests that major life traumas that happened over three months ago had no impact on happiness.
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It's present when we tend to overestimate the length or intensity of happiness that major events will create. The Impact Bias is one example of affective forecasting, which is a social psychology phenomenon that refers to our generally terrible ability as humans to predict our future emoti...
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