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Ryker
@rykerx66
Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias is a logical error that twists our understanding of the world and leads to a wrong understanding of cause and effect.
We fall into survivorship bias when we assume that success stories tell the entire story of a product/business, while we don't properly consider past failures.
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Weston A.
@weston_ga482
Survivorship bias: when failure gets forgotten
The Survivorship Bias
We tend to be interested in the success stories of many. We love the encouragement it provides us, but we often overlook the fact that most of these success stories have undergone through m...
The effects of survivorship bias
When we ignore the logical error of the stories and advice we hear it deceives us into believing that past failures are not adequate enough to be considered.
This bias induces people to see correlation in sheer coincidences.
A great example is when the U.S. Military tried to reduce aircraft casualties back in WWII. They analyzed the planes that got back safely but never the ones that didn't. They concluded that they should increase armor in the wings and the tails of the planes, but not the engine.
Survivorship bias in business
We must remember that most people do not become rich and famous. Most leaps of faiths are miscalculated. This does not mean that we should stop trying, instead we should remain to have a realistic understanding of reality.
Most entrepreneurs don't actually know what they're doing. There isn't a lot of them who have a detailed or a perfected plan to follow. Still, we try to "copy" their ways so that we can probably achieve what they have achieved.
Liza Mills
@lizamm0
7 Overlooked Biases That Creep Into Your Work (And Undermine Its Success)
Biases...
... specifically cognitive biases, are your unchecked tendencies to make decisions or take actions in an irrational way.
Instead of making decisions based on facts and data, you ...
Biases = shortcuts for processing information
The brain creates shortcuts in order to make fast decisions when it hits information or inspiration overload.
These shortcuts form unconscious biases so it’s easier for your brain to categorize information and make quick judgments over and over again.
Self-serving Bias
This means that when something good happens, you take the credit, but when something bad happens, you blame it on external factors.
Self-serving bias may manifest at work when you receive critical feedback. Instead of keeping an open mind, you may put up a defense when your manager or team member is sharing feedback or constructive criticism.
Colin I.
@colinii53
The Key to Making Risky Decisions | Scott H Young
Risky Business
When starting a project that requires time, energy and resources, the cost-benefit ratio is a good rule for deciding if the plunge is worth it.
One has to think about the risk in terms of p...
Risk As A Way Towards Growth
Taking risks is a way towards potential growth, even if it is not according to the original plan.
When entrepreneurs fail at their startup, a large chunk of them still benefit by:
- New connections and friendships
- New job opportunities
- A pivot towards another company.
Decision Modeling
One needs to take into consideration that any risky decision has the probability of failure, keeping in mind the potential benefits of not reaching the goal.
The ideal decision model should:
- Calculate or research about the baseline likelihood of success.
- Take a self-assessment of one’s own ability.
- Take into account the situation where the results of the decision are less than required.
- Take into consideration the opportunity cost.
- Ask oneself if the activity being undertaken is providing joy even without any outcome.
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