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Survivorship Bias
We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.
"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."
How to elude the survivorship bias?
- Do the digging yourself.
- Many successful individuals or teams share "success factors" with other winners and likewise, many failed individuals or teams share the same characteristics and traits as those who succeeds.
- Guard against survivorship bias by visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers.
27
218 reads
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Clustering Illusion
When you start seeing a pattern in something, always consider the possibility that the occurence is simply by chance.
23
177 reads
Swimmer's Body Illusion
Swimmer's body illusion is whenever we confuse selection factors with results.
Some people are born with selection factors that makes them eligible for the success that they have now achieved. For example a swimmer might not have a perfect body because he swims, but because he was genetica...
22
130 reads
Social Proof
We are genetically programmed with herd instinct -- to follow the crowd. However, it does not always mean that when the crowd does something, that action of choice is correct.
"If fifty million people sat something foolish, it is still foolish" - W. Somerset Maugham
24
163 reads
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