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The Survivorship Bias
We tend to be interested in the success stories of many. We love the encouragement it provides us, but we often overlook the fact that most of these success stories have undergone through many failures.
Survivorship bias is when we concentrate on the people and the things that passed through a selection process and experienced a form of success. This process tends to overlook those who did not make it through and almost always leads to false conclusions.
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The effects of survivorship bias
When we ignore the logical error of the stories and advice we hear it deceives us into believing that past failures are not adequate enough to be considered.
This bias induces people to see correlation in sheer coincidences.
A great example is when the ...
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Avoiding survivorship bias
Most of the inspirational success stories we see give out advice like waking up at 5 AM in the morning or eating a well-balanced meal. Those are important, but we should not overlook those who were unsuccessful.
We should learn from their mistakes and be ...
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Survivorship bias in business
We must remember that most people do not become rich and famous. Most leaps of faiths are miscalculated. This does not mean that we should stop trying, instead we should remain to have a realistic understanding of reality.
Most entrepreneurs don't actually...
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"I think the next best thing to solving a problem is finding some humor in it." -Frank Howard Clark
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Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias is a logical error that twists our understanding of the world and leads to a wrong understanding of cause and effect.
We fall into survivorship bias when we assume that success stories tell the entire story of a product/business, while we don't properly consider past fail...
Survivorship Bias
We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.
"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."
How to elude the survivorship bias?
- Do the digg...
Survivorship Bias
It's our tendency to concentrate on the people who end up winning —the survivors—and mistakenly assume that ambitious goals led to their success while removing from pur view all of the people who had the same objective but didn’t succeed.
When you solely focus on success, survivorsh...
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