We are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right.

The genetic fallacy describes accepting a claim as true or false solely based on its origin. An idea's source doesn’t validate or invalidate its claim to truth, yet it is one of the most prevalent fallacies you will encounter in the 21st century.

The Genetic Fallacy

Myopic discounting is the reversal of preference based on the distance to the reward. Its name derives from myopia, which means a lack of discernment or foreseeing. The preference reversal is called myopic, or nearsighted, because we see an attractive temptation that is near to us in time all too clearly, while the faraway choices are emotionally blurred and (a bit contrary to the ophthalmological metaphor) we judge them more objectively.

Myopic Discounting 

The conjunction fallacy occurs when a person assumes that specific conditions are more likely than a single general one. ‍What are people thinking? A class of events described by a single statement can be generic and abstract, with nothing for the mind to hold on to. A class of events described by a conjunction of statements can be more vivid, especially when they spell out a storyline we can watch in the theatre of our imagination. Intuitive probability is driven by imaginability: the easier something is to visualize, the likelier it seems.

The Conjunction Fallacy

Confirmation bias causes us to focus on the information that reinforces our beliefs while ignoring or distorting disconfirming evidence. Part of this reasoning is our tendency to treat ideas like possessions, things we wish to retain at all costs.People are often more concerned with winning an argument than discovering the truth. Truth-seeking has become a competition that rewards dogmatic beliefs and outlaws open-mindedness. This has given rise to the social notion that changing our minds is a sign of weakness. When, in fact,  it is a sign of substantial intellectual strength.

Confirmation Bias

According to the bandwagon fallacy, something is true simply because it is popular; therefore, the popularity of something validates its truth.Product advertisers use this ploy every time they use phrases like “most popular,” despite the fact that the popularity of a product is irrelevant to its merits

The Bandwagon Fallacy

The media has amplified our irrational judgments. One classic example is the safety of flying versus driving.The world’s roads account for 1.3 million fatal accidents each year, while plane crashes kill 250 people. We hear about the single plane crash of the year, but not about the 364 days of safe air travel. If news outlets used the same approach with cars, they would have to run the headline, “35,000 dead in road accidents yesterday,” every single day.

Our Judgements Are Mostly Irrational

When we pass judgment on someone simply because they are associated with someone we already have an opinion about, this is known as the guilty by association, or association fallacy.If there is a particular podcast host we dislike because of their terrible takes, every guest of theirs may leave a sour impression in our minds. When we next see the guest's name appear online, we will interpret everything they say in a negative light due to the traces the negative association has left in our minds (availability bias).

Guilty by Association

The definition of rational, according to dictionaries, is "having a reason." And the term reason derives from the Latin word ratio, which means "reason."Rationality, according to philosophers, is the ability to use information to achieve goals. The term "knowledge" refers to true beliefs that are supported by evidence. We wouldn't consider someone rational if they acted on incorrect beliefs.But rationality entails more than just believing correct thoughts like "1 Plus 1 = 2." It also facilitates our tasks.

Rationality Is a Tool for Achieving a Goal

Bayes’ rule or Bayes’ Theorem is the law of probability governing the strength of evidence—the rule saying how much to revise our probabilities (change our minds) when we learn a new fact or observe new evidence.Probabilistic thinking means avoiding absolutes. When we express the likelihood of our beliefs, we open the door to further discussions. Rather than expressing things in black and white terms, as true or false, try saying: ‘I’m an 80 on that’, or ‘I’m only a 25 on that’. As a result, we remain receptive to new evidence while gathering information to guide future truth-seeking efforts.

Bayesian Reasoning: Probabilistic Thinking

Knowing something does not imply that you will act rationally on it.Willpower isn't always up to the challenge of resisting temptation.Preventing yourself from acting on temptation is one approach to fighting it.If you go shopping after you've eaten, for example, it's much easier to resist the siren melodies of unhealthy treats. Similarly, if you've advised your company to set aside a portion of your paycheck for retirement, you can't spend money you know you should be saving.

Ignorance and Self-Restraint Are Both Viable Options

Selective ignorance can also be used to combat bias. That is why jury members are not allowed to see inadmissible evidence obtained through coercion or hearsay.Good scientists also protect their work from bias by performing double-blind studies in which they are unaware of which patients received medicine and which received a placebo. In both circumstances, ignorance aids in maintaining objectivity.

Ignorance To Combat Bias

Motivated reasoning describes how we let our beliefs mold our perception of the world, ensuring that we see things as we are, not as they are.When we add a belief to our arsenal, evidence for why it’s true begins compounding. Even if provided with proof that disproves these beliefs, we will interpret such evidence in ways that support our currently held narratives.The human brain is not a level playing field for rational decision-making. The myth that we are reasonable creatures stems from the incorrect assumption that our brains are, by default, instruments of logic.

Motivated Reasoning

In literary criticism, the affective fallacy refers to evaluating works based on the effect they have on the reader, who is free to reject anything deemed harmful, hurtful, or uncomfortable. The opposite is equally true. Although often described as a literary criticism term, the fallacy applies to any case where someone judges the validity of a message solely on its emotional impact.

The Affective Fallacy

Hyperbolic discounting is closely related to myopic discounting and points out our tendency to choose immediate rewards over future ones, even when the immediate rewards are smaller. Succumbing to this tendency results in poor decision-making because it promotes impulsivity and immediate gratification, behaviours that prioritize short-term enjoyment over long-term wellbeing.

Hyperbolic Discounting

When someone makes a claim to promote an emotional response rather than provide relevant facts to support their argument, they commit the appeal to emotion fallacy.While arguments often contain emotional components, the appeal to emotion fallacy occurs when a person uses emotion to manipulate and hide the fact that they cannot offer a rational counterargument.

Appeal To Emotion Fallacy

<ul><li>Rationality is a tool for achieving a goal.</li><li>Rationality aids in the decision-making process.</li><li>Ignorance and self-restraint are both viable options.</li><li>Science is the application of logic to the real world.</li><li>We become less partial — and more sensible – as a result of institutions.</li><li>People are punished for their own good, which leads to a more rational commons.</li><li>Because it is rational, our most important moral principle is powerful.</li></ul>

Rationality: What Sets Humans Apart From Other Species

The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.

The availability heuristic is a method of making decisions based on familiar facts - anything that has left a lasting impression on our minds.There is too much information circulating in society to evaluate the truth of each point or lack thereof. To combat this, we create mental shortcuts. When we are presented with new information, we make a quick inventory of our current beliefs in order to form an initial assessment of the material’s veracity.

The Availability Heuristic

When one path is blocked, we may always attempt another. This is human rationality in action.Reason is a tool for achieving a goal. Passions are the source of goals. That is, feelings such as love, rage, pride, envy, and fear stem from desires, drives, and emotions like love, anger, pride, envy, and fear. Reason, therefore, is the "slave of the passions."Reason alone cannot tell us which goals to pursue. They're neither rational nor irrational in a logical sense - they're arational.However, there are instances when we must choose between competing objectives. That's when logic comes into play.

Rationality Is Merely a Means to An Aim

Biases distort our cognitive system and prevent us from making rational decisions. The myth that we are reasonable creatures stems from the incorrect assumption that our brains are, by default, instruments of logic. Through analyzing the most common cognitive fallacies, we’re taken on a journey through the mechanics of the mind towards the root of our irrationality, which the author argues is due to motives shaping our judgment.

A TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR 2021 'Punchy, funny and invigorating ... Pinker is the high priest of rationalism' Sunday Times 'If you've ever considered taking drugs to make yourself smarter, read Rationality instead. It's cheaper, more entertaining, and more effective' Jonathan Haidt, author of The Righteous Mind In the twenty-first century, humanity is reaching new heights of scientific understanding - and at the same time appears to be losing its mind. How can a species that discovered vaccines for Covid-19 in less than a year produce so much fake news, quack cures and conspiracy theorizing? In Rationality, Pinker rejects the cynical cliché that humans are simply an irrational species - cavemen out of time fatally cursed with biases, fallacies and illusions. After all, we discovered the laws of nature, lengthened and enriched our lives and set the benchmarks for rationality itself. Instead, he explains, we think in ways that suit the low-tech contexts in which we spend most of our lives, but fail to take advantage of the powerful tools of reasoning we have built up over millennia: logic, critical thinking, probability, causal inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. These tools are not a standard part of our educational curricula, and have never been presented clearly and entertainingly in a single book - until now. Rationality matters. It leads to better choices in our lives and in the public sphere, and is the ultimate driver of social justice and moral progress. Brimming with insight and humour, Rationality will enlighten, inspire and empower. 'A terrific book, much-needed for our time' Peter Singer

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A TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR 2021 'Punchy, funny and invigorating ... Pinker is the high priest of rationalism' Sunday Times 'If you've ever considered taking drugs to make yourself smarter, read Rationality instead. It's cheaper, more entertaining, and more effective' Jonathan Haidt, author of The Righteous Mind In the twenty-first century, humanity is reaching new heights of scientific understanding - and at the same time appears to be losing its mind. How can a species that discovered vaccines for Covid-19 in less than a year produce so much fake news, quack cures and conspiracy theorizing? In Rationality, Pinker rejects the cynical cliché that humans are simply an irrational species - cavemen out of time fatally cursed with biases, fallacies and illusions. After all, we discovered the laws of nature, lengthened and enriched our lives and set the benchmarks for rationality itself. Instead, he explains, we think in ways that suit the low-tech contexts in which we spend most of our lives, but fail to take advantage of the powerful tools of reasoning we have built up over millennia: logic, critical thinking, probability, causal inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. These tools are not a standard part of our educational curricula, and have never been presented clearly and entertainingly in a single book - until now. Rationality matters. It leads to better choices in our lives and in the public sphere, and is the ultimate driver of social justice and moral progress. Brimming with insight and humour, Rationality will enlighten, inspire and empower. 'A terrific book, much-needed for our time' Peter Singer

Steven Arthur Pinker is a Canadian-American cognitive psychologist, psycholinguist, popular science author, and public intellectual. He is an advocate of evolutionary psychology and the computational theory of mind.

Bayesian Reasoning: Probabilistic Thinking

Similar ideas to Bayesian Reasoning: Probabilistic Thinking

Thomas Bayes'd thought experiment