False positives arise for many reasons such as bad measurement, wishful thinking or simply because the world is messy and it can be difficult to establish cause and effect.
One reason why we don’t make as big an impact as we should is:
Results should be tested with, for example, Benford’s Law, to see whether the data have been fabricated.
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Economist John List is trying to start a scaling revolution. He discusses avoiding false positives, the cause of a given success and optimal quitting.
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The idea is part of this collection:
Learn more about business with this collection
Understanding the importance of decision-making
Identifying biases that affect decision-making
Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision
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