Surprise! - Deepstash

Surprise!

History is the study of change ironically used as a map of the future. The past doesn't predict the future.

The four most dangerous words in investing are, “it’s different this time.”

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katkat_b

Lifetime Learner

“Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems.”

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we can’t know much about what will happen at those moments when knowing would make the biggest difference.

• Most of the time, people predict a future that is a lot like the recent past.

• They’re not necessarily wrong: most of the time the future largely is a rerun of the recent past.

• On the basis of these two points, it’s possible to conclude that forecasts will prove accurate much of ...

  • However, the many forecasts that correctly extrapolate past experience are of little value. Just as forecasters usually assume a future that’s a lot like the past, so do markets, which usually price in a continuation of recent history. Th us if the future turns out to be like the past, it’s ...

Understand the future

Understand the future

Many of us think of our past as a kind of a video library where we can look at records of our lives. If memories were fixed like videotapes, you would find it difficult to imagine a new situation.

It is our past memories that help us imagine a future, and to preview future events. This skil...

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