How A Lucky Win Skews A Known Probability - Deepstash
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How A Lucky Win Skews A Known Probability

Specifically, the researchers asked 70 people to repeatedly choose between two lotteries in which they could gain some reward with some probability. The lotteries varied in the size of the reward, the probability of receiving it, and the amount of risk involved.

The results showed that immediately after experiencing an outcome that was bigger than the expected value of the selected option, participants behaved as if the probability of winning in the next lottery increased.

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MORE IDEAS ON THIS

Neuroeconomics

Research in the multidisciplinary field of neuroeconomics has mainly been driven by two influential theories regarding human economic choice:

  • prospect theory, which describes decision-making under risk, and
  • reinforcement le...

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270 reads

Probabilities & Prospects: Winning Is Believing

Professor Yamada also says: “Such learning from unexpected events underlies reinforcement learning theory and is a well-known algorithm that occurs when people need to learn the rewards from experience.

It is interesting that it occurs even if learning ...

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How Winning Changes Perception Of The Variables

Senior author of the study Assistant Professor Hiroshi Yamada says “This behavior is surprising because winning probabilities were clearly described to the participants (participants did not have to learn them from experience) and these probabilities were also completely inde...

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188 reads

Dymanic Prospect Theory

Researchers from the University of Tsukuba, Japan have developed and validated a model (“dynamic prospect theory”) that integrates the most popular model in behavioral economics to describe decision-making under uncertainty—prospect theory, and a well-established model of learnin...

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Irrationally Influenced Rational Decisions

How do we make decisions when the outcomes are uncertain?

One possible way would be to calculate the expected value of each option by multiplying each possible outcome amount by its probability and then choosing the option with the highest expected value.

While this strategy w...

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