Overconfidence Effect - Deepstash

Overconfidence Effect

We systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict something. Experts are no different.

84% men in France think that they are above average lover.

93% of students in US think they are above average driver.

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clevercoworker

Lifelong learner and content creator. Helping you to find joy at work, get more things done, and be your best self.

The book is a compilation of 99 logical fallacies and thinking error. I put together only the most relevant to me in this list.

Similar ideas to Overconfidence Effect

Managing the overconfidence bias

  • Embrace meta-rationality. Know the limits of your own understanding, know when to consult experts, which experts to defer to, and when to admit that something is impossible for anyone to know.
  • Allow for uncertainty. Confident statements seem more p...

3. What Are Your Blind Spots?

The important thing is just that we’re self-aware about our weaknesses. Otherwise, we become enslaved to our mind’s faulty mechanisms. Our minds are flawed in many ways-

  • Our ability to predict our thoughts and feelings in the future is poor. 
  • We constantly overestimate ourselve...

Theory of Mind

This is our ability to think about what other people are thinking. We think constantly about what the other person is thinking and adjust our behavior accordingly. 

While the tendency to engage in theory of mind is useful—it helps us relate to one another and predict what ...

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