Things that our mind can process easily will make us overconfident.When we see someone does hard thing effortlessly, we often think we can do it too.When we see a final product that looks fluent and perfectly normal, we think the process leading to that is also easy and smooth.For example, when we see a great book that is easy to understand, we think it’s also easy to write it, while the opposite is true.

The Fluency Effect

“We are frequently overconfident about the extent of our knowledge—we think we know more than we really do.”

We have a tendency to confirm what we already believe.Therefore, we often focus on finding confirming evidence only, even though seeking evidence that will say otherwise is equally important.This is dangerous for us, especially if what we believe is not a factual truth.

Confirmation Bias

“Confirming data is necessary but not sufficient, because you also need to disconfirm your hypothesis.”

“An INVALUABLE RESOURCE to anyone who wants to think better.” —Gretchen Rubin Award-winning YALE PROFESSOR Woo-kyoung Ahn delivers “A MUST-READ—a smart and compellingly readable guide to cutting-edge research into how people think.” (Paul Bloom) “A FUN exploration.” —Dax Shepard Psychologist Woo-kyoung Ahn devised a course at Yale called “Thinking” to help students examine the biases that cause so many problems in their daily lives. It quickly became one of the university’s most popular courses. Now, for the first time, Ahn presents key insights from her years of teaching and research in a book for everyone. She shows how “thinking problems” stand behind a wide range of challenges, from common, self-inflicted daily aggravations to our most pressing societal issues and inequities. Throughout, Ahn draws on decades of research from other cognitive psychologists, as well as from her own groundbreaking studies. And she presents it all in a compellingly readable style that uses fun examples from pop culture, anecdotes from her own life, and illuminating stories from history and the headlines. Thinking 101 is a book that goes far beyond other books on thinking, showing how we can improve not just our own daily lives through better awareness of our biases but also the lives of everyone around us. It is, quite simply, required reading for everyone who wants to think—and live—better.

Understand yourself and those around you.

psychology

Psychology

personaldevelopment

Personal Development

education

Learning & Education

problemsolving

Problem Solving

books

Books

Woo-kyoung Ahn

Thinking 101

We sometimes forget to appreciate that there are a lot of effort to keep an aircraft flying, which is invisible to us, let alone the relentless pursuits to keep the overall industry safe.When something is not working as planned, a series of decisions and actions will determine the fate of the flight. An ability to think clearly under such situation is something we can learn.

Learning from Aviation

“To make an aircraft fly is a constant struggle against physics. An airliner traveling six hundred miles per hour at thirty thousand feet is not something that happens naturally. It’s not a fail-safe act, meaning the default is to crash—it’s up to our ingenuity and decision-making to prevent it from happening.”

Making decision as a fighter pilot involves 3 steps known as the ACE Helix:<ul><li>Assess the problem</li><li>Choose correct course of action</li><li>Execute</li></ul>It’s like a helix because each decision may require us to make second and even third order of decision spiraling down the line.

3 Steps of Decision Making

“Knowledge is only useful to the degree that it can be drawn on when it’s needed.”

A fighter pilot needs to make decision with incomplete information and lives on the line. Clear thinking often beats talent. It’s better to exercise judgment to avoid situations that would require superior technical skills.In today’s complex and interconnected world, a decision can directly impact many others. This is further amplified by technology. The difference between good and bad decision is enormous.

Impact of Clear Thinking

Our minds are biased toward linear thinking. However, many things in life are nonlinear.Power Law governs systems where a change in one aspect can lead to a very large change in another, regardless of starting conditions.There are 3 common types:<ol><li>Exponential growth (population, virus infection, compound interest)</li><li>Diminishing returns (satisfaction, manpower, ad spend)</li><li>Long tail (income distribution, social media following, book sales)</li></ol>

Power Law

“We are naturally programmed to view the world in a linear way. For much of history, mistakenly identifying a power law as a linear relationship wasn’t a big deal because the world wasn’t nearly as leveraged. Today, though, our decisions are greatly leveraged by technology. Each decision we make is amplified to produce a far greater outcome than we could produce on our own.”

A fighter pilot must be able to make decision quickly until it becomes instinctual. There is hard limit on how many times they can fly and engage in real combat, so learning process is critical.Some strategies:<ul><li>Concepts over facts. Understand cause and effect relationship and develop robust mental framework.</li><li>Choose the best and most experienced pilot as the instructor. No option to turn down the position.</li><li>Use combat simulation. Pilots are required to solve a mission like in real world.</li><li>Take debrief seriously. Gain lessons learned from each simulation and real combat to refine our thinking.</li></ul>

Honing Decision Making Skill

“No one is born a good pilot. In fact, most fighter pilots show up to pilot training with zero flight experience.”

“For each mission, I would write down the top lessons I had learned in a small notebook that I always kept in my flight suit pocket. Before each flight, I would review similar missions and strive to repeat what I had done well and not make mistakes that I had made in the past.”

Heuristics are rule-of-thumb strategies designed to shorter the time it takes to solve complex problem and decide next course of action. It’s a mental shortcut.Some examples<ul><li>Line of sight. How an object align to certain position in the windshield.</li><li>Good-idea cutoff line. During planning, everyone can give ideas, but after two thirds of planning session, no more new ideas allowed to avoid delay and confusion.</li></ul>

Utilize Heuristics

To maximize learning from debrief session, apply the following ideas:<ul><li>Put aside ranks. Everyone must be allowed to point out mistakes. Everyone is open to criticism.</li><li>Own mistakes. Encourage everyone to first look inward for failure, starting from the mission commander and highest ranking pilots.</li><li>Structure the session. Debrief session typically consists of (1) recollection of all mission data and study them personally, (2) reconstruct the mission using everyone’s data to get the god’s eye view, (3) choose debrief focus points, (4) analyze contributing factors, and (5) formulate new instructions.</li></ul>

How To Conduct Effective Debrief

“Debriefing is one of the most powerful tools to improve decision-making. By understanding the cause and effect of the choices we make, we can build an understanding of the world around us.”

A fighter pilot must be able to make quick decision during critical situation by evaluating options, calculate its rough probability and approximate the expected value of each decision. This is an ability called fast-forecasting.Fast-forecasting allows us to create rough solutions that make sense. Precision is not the goal. The thought process is largely driven by logic and reason, cultivating our mental framework that we’ve accumulated in our life.

Fast-Forecasting

“The real world is complex, and decisions always come with some amount of uncertainty. Fast-forecasting is effective in this environment because it prioritizes accuracy over precision by integrating our hard-earned intuition into the solution.”

In modern days, war is planned based on the desired effects or outcomes rather than the available resources. Starting at the end goal and then working backward.This type of planning is better than focusing on traditional medium for certain attack, we can select and combine the most appropriate tools to get the desired end state, whether by using tanks, helicopters, drones, or even cyber attack.Creativity can help us connecting things in unexpected ways and it’s such critical resource that can give exponential advantage.

Effects-Based Operations

No plan survives first contact of the enemy. In real combat, there is always element of fear involved. Ability to manage stress and remain calm are critical to think clearly in any situation.Beside training and experience, there are several techniques that can be used, such as breathing slowly, reframing our thinking, and visualizing the upcoming events.

Mental Toughness

Eisenhower made one of the best decision in history during World War 2. In large part, it was due to his ability to prioritize.He introduced the famous Eisenhower matrix, a 2x2 matrix which can help us to prioritize our tasks based on urgency and importance. We should spend most of our time to focus on important things before it becomes urgent. We must reduce anything that is not important. Spare some mental capacity to make decision that matters.

Making Priority

“The ability to clearly assess a problem, generate potential courses of action, assess expected value, and then execute is a universal skill that everyone can learn and improve upon.”

This book is unique because it is written based on the author’s real experiences as fighter pilot and trainer. Many of the lessons are quite practical and useful in critical situations.

THE #2 WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER Based on a career of making high-stakes, split-second decisions as a U.S. fighter pilot, The Art of Clear Thinking teaches readers to apply Hasard Lee's combat-tested techniques in everyday life. The training to become a fighter pilot is among the most competitive and difficult in the world with fewer than one in a thousand succeeding. Pushing a cutting-edge jet to its limits at over 1,000 mph means that every split-second decision can have catastrophic consequences. This extreme environment has forged a group of warriors who for the last fifty years have been considered at the apex of decision-making theory and practice. In The Art of Clear Thinking, Hasard Lee distills what he’s learned during his career flying some of the Air Force’s most advanced aircraft. With gripping firsthand accounts from his time as a fighter pilot and fascinating turning points throughout history, Hasard reveals powerful decision-making principles that can be used in business and in life, including: • HOW TO LEARN BETTER AND FASTER • CULTIVATING MENTAL TOUGHNESS • DEVELOPING THE SKILLS TO QUICKLY ASSESS, CHOOSE, AND EXECUTE • AND MUCH, MUCH MORE Hasard has used and taught these techniques across the full spectrum of human endeavors and proven their effectiveness in both the cockpit and the boardroom. Those who have already benefited include CEO’s, astronauts, CIA agents, students, parents, and many others. The Art of Clear Thinking is a book that will change how you interact with the world around you.

strategy

Strategy

Hasard Lee

The Art of Clear Thinking

“In the space between stimulus and response, one of two things can happen. You can consciously pause and apply reason to the situation. Or you can cede control and execute a default behavior.”

Our biggest problem with thinking is that we’re not really thinking in the situation where judgment is needed. We are reacting automatically based on our natural tendencies:<ul><li>Emotion default (responding to feeling rather than reason and fact)</li><li>Ego default (protecting our self worth and position in hierarchy)</li><li>Social default (conforming to social norms)</li><li>Inertia default (seeking comfort and familiarity)</li></ul>

The Problem with Thinking

“In order to be right, you must be willing to change your mind. If you’re not willing to change your mind, you’re going to be wrong a lot. The people who frequently find themselves on the wrong side of right are people who can’t zoom in and out and see the problem from multiple angles.”

To overcome our defaults and improve our thinking, we must build strength to make a space for thinking between a situation and our response.We need make it a habit and use inertia default for our benefit. Here are the source of strengths to be developed:<ul><li>Self-accountability (holding ourselves accountable for our actions)</li><li>Self-knowledge (knowing our strengths and weaknesses)</li><li>Self-control (mastering our emotions)</li><li>Self-confidence (trusting our abilities)</li></ul>

How To Build Strength

Once we’ve build the strength to create space for thinking, then we can apply clear thinking to make decision.Decision is a judgment that certain option is the best one.Decision making process is as follow:<ol><li>Define the problem</li><li>Explore potential solutions</li><li>Evaluate the options</li><li>Make the judgment</li><li>Execute the best option</li></ol>

Decision Making Process

“There is a gap in our thinking that comes from believing that the way we see the world is the way the world really works. It’s only when we change our perspective—when we look at the situation through the eyes of other people—that we realize what we’re missing.”

When deciding between several options, you must have specific evaluation criteria with these features:<ul><li>Clarity: criteria must be clear, simple, and easily understood</li><li>Goal Promotion: criteria must favor options that achieve desired goal</li><li>Decisiveness: criteria must favor exactly one option.</li></ul>For example, you want to live in suburb and look for new job. You can use the following criteria:<ul><li>Increased take home pay at least 30% (Clarity, Decisiveness)</li><li>Allow work-from-home (Goal Promotion)</li><li>You believe you can make impact in the first 90 days (Decisiveness)</li></ul>

Criteria for Evaluating Options

You must know what is the most important thing for you when using your selection criteria.If you don’t know what it is, then you don’t fully understand the problem yet.One way to find the most important thing is by listing down all the criteria, then compare in pairs (one-to-one) which criteria is more favorable when it’s true. Do it for all criteria until we find the ultimate winner.

Most Important Thing

“There is only one most important thing in every project, goal, and company. If you have two or more most important things, you’re not thinking clearly. This is an important aspect of leadership and problem-solving in general: you have to pick one criterion above all the others and communicate it in a way that your people can understand so they can make decisions on their own.”

Quality of your decision is determined by the quality of information you have. Most information is irrelevant. High quality information is both accurate and relevant.Seek information from direct source. Run your own experiments. Learn from the real expert, not imitator or popularizer. Evaluate motivation and incentives of your source, because everyone has their own perspectives.

Information You Need

The quality of your decisions is directly related to the quality of your thoughts. The quality of your thoughts is directly related to the quality of your information.

High quality information comes from experts. There are ways to approach them effectively:<ol><li>Show that you have skin in the game</li><li>Be precise on what you’re asking</li><li>Show respect for their time and energy</li><li>Listen to their reasons</li><li>Follow up and keep them updated</li></ol>Experts love sharing what they know especially if it makes difference. Helping others make their life meaningful and they also enjoy doing what they’re good at.

How To Get Help From Experts

At certain point, you must stop looking for more information and start taking action.It depends on whether the decision is reversible or not and to what extent the outcome is consequential.Take action based on the following rules:<ul><li>ASAP (as soon as possible): if the cost to undo the decision is low</li><li>ALAP (as late as possible): if the cost to undo the decision is high</li><li>FLOP (first lost opportunity): if we start losing options</li></ul>For example, decide ASAP what to eat for breakfast, decide ALAP where to live, and be aware of FLOP when you choose where to have internship.

When To Take Action

Things don’t always go as planned. You need to have a buffer between what we expect to happen and what could happen. That’s margin of safety.Engineers build a bridge to sustain more than double its maximum capacity. Investors only choose business they understand so that they can calculate the margin of safety. You need to save for rainy days.

Have Margin of Safety

Most people evaluate decision based on its outcomes, but they forget that there are outside factors, such as luck.Quality of a decision is determined by the process and the reasoning used when the decision is made.To evaluate your decision we need to make it visible by writing down your thoughts when you make the decision. Then you can evaluate whether the result is aligned with your expectation or not.For example, a good trader usually keeps a trading journal to record each trade and reasoing behind it. This way allows them to learn what works and improve their trading skill over time.

Learn from Your Decisions

“Making a good decision is about the process, not the outcome. One bad outcome doesn’t make you a poor decision-maker any more than one good outcome makes you a genius. Unless you evaluate your reasoning at the time you made the decision, you’ll never know whether you were correct or just lucky.”

We’re making decision mostly to get what we want, but it’s equally important for us to know whether what we want is the right thing.In the end, it’s about what matters in life. We all want a happy, fulfilling and enjoyable life. We need to think deeply on whether what we pursue align with our ultimate goal.

Wanting The Right Thing

“Good judgment is, above all else, about being effective at achieving what matters—not what matters in the moment, but what matters in life.”

This book is great because of its simplicity. For some readers, the ideas may not be new, but I think it’s because they’re true and proven to be effective. I am sharing here what’s most interesting to me plus additional examples to make it easier to understand.

The instant New York Times bestseller 'An indispensable guide' James Clear, author of Atomic Habits 'A game-changer' Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money 'A must-read' Mark Manson, author of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck 'A masterwork' Ryan Holiday, author of The Daily Stoic We all want to see the world clearly. The trouble is, we're never taught how. Join Shane Parrish - 'the former spy who helps Wall Street mavens think smarter' (New York Times) - for a masterclass in the art of clear thinking. Drawing on examples ranging from the evolutionary origins of our 'emotion default' to the secret history of the Challenger disaster, Parrish offers powerful mental models to make sense of any situation. And he reveals a simple, actionable method for smarter decision-making, starting today. Along the way, he shows that the secret to mental clarity lies not in how we approach the most high-stakes moments - but in our tiniest, most everyday decisions. It's a simple idea with startling implications: if you clear your head today, you change your life tomorrow. _ 'Incisive. Practical. Full of vivid examples, and enormously fun to read.' Jim Collins, author of Good to Great 'Shane Parrish doesn't just teach clear thinking - he lives it.' Adam Grant, author of Originals 'If you want results - good ones - that you can achieve confidently again and again, read this book.' Annie Duke, author of Quit

Thinking 101

The Art of Clear Thinking

Clear Thinking

Julian