Julian 's Key Ideas from The Art of Thinking Clearly
by Rolf Dobelli

When we have invested some time, effort, or money, while the result is not as expected, we have tendency to carry on, because of that initial investment.

This is irrational because the expense has happened and we can’t change the past.

Decision about the future must be guided by expected cost and benefit from that point forward.

We systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict something. Experts are no different.

84% men in France think that they are above average lover.

93% of students in US think they are above average driver.

People are bombarded with more options than ever. There is a limit and when it is crossed, more choices will destroy the quality of life.

We make no choice because of inner paralysis.

We make poor decision because we focus only on few criteria to filter lots of options. Sometimes it’s a wrong filter.

We feel discontent because we are not sure we have made the best choice.

Think carefully about what you want before inspecting options. Aim for good enough, not perfection.

We can see clearly a causal relationship from a series of event in retrospect, even though during the time those events were happening it’s totally unpredictable.

For example, after each election we hear people rationalize whatever the result, even though it’s 50-50 before the election or contrary to the actual result.

Before the crisis, only few people can see what’s happening. After the crisis, everyone seems to have seen what’s to come.

This bias is dangerous because it makes us think we are better predictor and take too much risks.