Hindsight Bias

We can see clearly a causal relationship from a series of event in retrospect, even though during the time those events were happening it’s totally unpredictable.

For example, after each election we hear people rationalize whatever the result, even though it’s 50-50 before the election or contrary to the actual result.

Before the crisis, only few people can see what’s happening. After the crisis, everyone seems to have seen what’s to come.

This bias is dangerous because it makes us think we are better predictor and take too much risks.