You move to a new town... - Deepstash

You move to a new town and see many successful restaurants. You think you can do the same. But you don't see the thousands that failed before them. This is survivorship bias.

Survivorship bias makes you underestimate it.

  • For every rock star, there are thousands of people in the “cemetery of failure” who never made it.
  • For every Startup business, there are thousands of failed startups.

Everyone should chase their dreams, but don’t let survivorship bias trick you into thinking the challenge is easier than it seems.

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yuyutsu

Content Curator | Absurdist | Amateur Gamer | Failed musician | Successful pessimist | Pianist |

Part II (and the final part) of the series. Read and stash away!

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2. Survivorship Bias

2. Survivorship Bias

After reading Gates’ and Musk’s life stories, people seem to fall for the successful dropout myth , because if they can do it, why can’t you?

These stories might expose a fallacy in judgement because in reality, for one success story...

Survivorship Bias

We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.

"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."

How to elude the survivorship bias?

  • Do the digg...

Consider What You Don’t See

We can overcome survivorship bias by considering the things that started on the same path but didn't make it.  Try and figure out why they failed. If you're going to do something, make sure you are fully informed.

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