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How to move forward
- Cooperation is a powerful way to move forward both as individuals and societies. All of us have given up some independence for access to resources provided by others.
- We can mitigate some negative effects by leveraging our community networks to create cooperative interactions that could fill the gaps in the government response. We can also create more resilient connections in the future.
- Lastly, we need to consider how we can be less fragile. We can't just get "back to normal" as it proved to be too fragile. We need to ask how we can grow stronger so that we are better prepared and less vulnerable.
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Probabilistic thinking
In the absence of enough testing, we need to use probabilistic thinking to make decisions on what actions to take. Reasonable probability will impact your approach to physical distancing if you estimate the likelihood of transmission as being three people out of ten instead of one person out ...
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500 reads
Ecosystems
One quality of an ecosystem is its resilience - the speed at which an ecosystem recovers after a disturbance.
- One factor that interferes with our collective resilience is the thin buffer of our economy. The closing of shops and business has exposed the fragile supply...
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Compounding
Compounding is exponential growth. We tend to see the immediate linear relationships in the situation, e.g., how one test diagnoses one person.
The compounding effect of that relationship means that increased testing can lead to an exponential decrease in disease tran...
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634 reads
Understanding the world through mental models
A few months ago, the world seemed reliable, but now it is changing so fast and has so many unknown dimensions, it can be hard to try and keep up.
Mental models can help us understand the world better, especially during times of confusion. A mental model is simply a representation ...
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The dynamics of a social response
As we watch the pandemic and its consequences unfold, we see that leadership and authority are not the same things.
Disasters expose the cracks in our leadership. We also see people that display strong leadership without needing any authority.
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360 reads
Models for society
Using mental models will help in understanding the dynamics of the large-scale social response.
We are currently seeing first-order negatives (closing businesses), and 2nd- and 3rd-order positives (reduced transmission, less stress on the healthcare system.)
We need to enco...
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Inefficiency creates a buffer
Some inefficiency can be seen as an insurance policy.
Year after year, if you don't get into a car accident, you may think that you have 'wasted' money on insurance. But insurance enables us to be resilient against problems that could overtake us. To be prepared, we need ...
How To Respond To Circumlocution
If the other person is using more words than required, we need to understand how much of a misleading act it is, and how much of it is genuine or unavoidable. We also need to see if the use of too many words has some valid reason or not.
We can use Hanlon's Razor, which would mean...
7 Things You Need To Understand About Anxiety And Depression
No, we are not over yet. After discussing the topic with my friend’s Dad (he is a doctor), I’ve made a list of things you need to understand and avoid anxiety attacks (hard to breathe moments).
- Think of your anxiety as a biological problem, rather than thinking there is something wron...
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