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In the absence of enough testing, we need to use probabilistic thinking to make decisions on what actions to take. Reasonable probability will impact your approach to physical distancing if you estimate the likelihood of transmission as being three people out of ten instead of one person out ...
One quality of an ecosystem is its resilience - the speed at which an ecosystem recovers after a disturbance.
Compounding is exponential growth. We tend to see the immediate linear relationships in the situation, e.g., how one test diagnoses one person.
The compounding effect of that relationship means that increased testing can lead to an exponential decrease in disease tran...
A few months ago, the world seemed reliable, but now it is changing so fast and has so many unknown dimensions, it can be hard to try and keep up.
Mental models can help us understand the world better, especially during times of confusion. A mental model is simply a representation ...
As we watch the pandemic and its consequences unfold, we see that leadership and authority are not the same things.
Disasters expose the cracks in our leadership. We also see people that display strong leadership without needing any authority.
Using mental models will help in understanding the dynamics of the large-scale social response.
We are currently seeing first-order negatives (closing businesses), and 2nd- and 3rd-order positives (reduced transmission, less stress on the healthcare system.)
We need to enco...
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Some inefficiency can be seen as an insurance policy.
Year after year, if you don't get into a car accident, you may think that you have 'wasted' money on insurance. But insurance enables us to be resilient against problems that could overtake us. To be prepared, we need ...
If the other person is using more words than required, we need to understand how much of a misleading act it is, and how much of it is genuine or unavoidable. We also need to see if the use of too many words has some valid reason or not.
We can use Hanlon's Razor, which would mean...
No, we are not over yet. After discussing the topic with my friend’s Dad (he is a doctor), I’ve made a list of things you need to understand and avoid anxiety attacks (hard to breathe moments).
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