Ideas from books, articles & podcasts.
Most of us understand probability and the likelihood of certain things to happen, or not happening, but still do not fully believe in it. For us, it’s about right and wrong, black or white.
Example: Nate Silver(a numbers guy) said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton has a 72 percent chance to win. This didn’t mean he was wrong when Clinton lost, but most people believed he was.
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Probability gets sidelined because:
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Life is a little easier if you expect a certain chunk of it to go wrong no matter how hard you try.
Smart people screw up. Good people have bad days. Nice people lose their temper.
Our predictions usually seem to fall towards extremes, either too optimistic or too pessimistic. We underestimate how bad things can be in the short term, and how much better they can eventually turn out to be in the longer run. This leads to bad decisions, laughably wrong foreca...
published 3 ideas
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