A roadmap of past collapses - Deepstash
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A roadmap of past collapses

Although there is no conclusive explanation of why civilizations collapse, there are factors that can contribute.

  • Climatic change can result in disaster, resulting in crop failure, starvation, and desertification. The Akkadians, the Mayan, the Roman Empire, and many others coincided with abrupt climatic changes.
  • Ecological collapse theory: When societies overdo the carrying capacity of their environment, e.g., excessive deforestation, water pollution, soil degradation, and the loss of biodiversity.
  • Inequality and oligarchy: As a population increases, the supply of labor outstrips demand, workers become cheap and society top-heavy. Political violence follows.
  • Complexity: Accumulated complexity and bureaucracy eventually leads to collapse. The returns from complexity eventually reach a point of diminishing returns, causing collapse.
  • External shocks: War, natural disasters, famine, and plagues. The Aztec Empire was brought to its knees by Spanish invaders. Early agrarian states were passing due to deadly epidemics.
  • Randomness: Collapse is often random and independent of age.

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Metrics for our chance of collapse

Four possible metrics serve as indicators to see if our chance of collapse is falling or rising.

  1. Temperature is a clear metric for climate change.
  2. Complexity is represented by GDP.
  3. The ecological footprint is an indicator of

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When civilizations collapse

When civilizations collapse

Looking at the rise and fall of historical civilizations, the forces that precipitate or delay a collapse can tell us about our own.

We can define collapse as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity, and socio-economic complexity. Public services fold, and chaos ensues as...

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We're not immune to collapse

Societies of the past and present are just complex systems comprising of people and technology.

Although we have better technologies, we are not immune to the threats that faced our ancestors. If anything, our technological abilities bring more challenges. Our globalized e...

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Measures of resilience

The collapse metrics are not the whole picture without also adding societal resilience, which may delay or prevent collapse.

  • Global economic diversity - a measurement of the diversity and sophistication of country exports - is higher today than fifty...

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Responsibility and Prevention

History suggests that a collapse of our civilization, although likely, is not inevitable.

We may slow the chance of a future collapse if we reduce emissions, level inequalities, reverse environmental degradation, innovate, and diversify our economies. We can also invest in recovery. Avoidi...

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The past as our teacher

In the past, collapse was within a region. Today the world is deeply interconnected and interdependent, making societal collapse more treacherous.

  • The weapons available today range from biological agents to nuclear weapons.
  • People produce food and essential goods in an incre...

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CURATED FROM

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christopher_gc

Whenever I have a problem I just sing, then I realize my voice is worse than my problem

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Metrics for our chance of collapse

Four possible metrics serve as indicators to see if our chance of collapse is falling or rising.

  1. Temperature is a clear metric for climate change.
  2. Complexity is represented by GDP.
  3. The ecological footprint is an indicator of

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