Do not try to predict precise Black Swans - it tends to make you more vulnerable to the ones you did not predict […]
Invest in preparedness, not in prediction. Remember that infinite vigilance is just not possible.
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB
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A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
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