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The people who imagine disasters
Simulating a crisis
Modeling systems are used to provide a better understanding of a bad situation and how to possibly prevent it.
Groups of researchers, teams of engineers and companies are dedicated to simulate a range of disasters to help us all be better prepared.
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Why we use models
- A model is just a series of calculations that abstractly represent some systems in the real world. We use models all the time.
- We may work out the routes we could take to get to work at a specific time of the day. We use past data to make predictions about what we can expect in the future in a given set of circumstances.
- As the volume of data and the number of variables increase, the computational task would increase.
- Powerful models aim to forecast inherently unpredictable events and make use of machine learning to look for patterns in the data that would otherwise be missed.
The accuracy of a model
You can never accurately predict what's going to happen. Some efforts come close.
For example, models looking at the weather can achieve more than 90% accuracy. But crises are about change, and a model working from historical data may miss a dramatic and new change.
How people could respond to different situations
Knowing how people will respond in different situations is essential if you hope to keep them safe during a crisis. A type of simulation known as agent-based modelling attempts to understand interpersonal behaviours.
In stadiums, crowds of people can behave very differently depending on who they are and what kind of event has brought them to the venue. Depending on what sort of crowds are expected, architects may adjust the number of exits or the staircase designs to ensure a steady flow out of the venue during an evacuation. Modeling helps by getting the balance right.
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The Self-Perception of Experts
New research on the accuracy of future predictions by people has some interesting findings:
- Experts, largely considered an authority, fared poorly than the novices, due to their over...
Facing Change: Millennials Vs Boomers
Past experience, which many experts think helps them to better understand the world, surprisingly does not improve the ability to predict the future. The research data showed accuracy levels of the younger generation (25 to 35 years of age) being the highest.
Old people are slower to comprehend change, faster to believe and share fake news and less likely to be objective.
Humility
Working with an open mind, ready to dive into unfamiliar territory and learning new things, makes the entire exercise stress-free and rewarding experience. This state of mind, along with basic humility makes for better performance. One’s arrogance, ego and past can negatively affect the prediction quality.
A humble attitude also makes people listen to others opinions and share their own unique insights, helping collaboration and constructive teamwork.
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![How to Be Successful in Life [2019] | Brian Tracy](https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.briantracy.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/09125533/personal-success-change-your-life-keys-to-success2.jpg)
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Personal success
Personal success is not a matter of background, intelligence, or native ability.
The keys to success in life are our ability to draw out the very best out of ourselves under almost all condit...
The Four Keys to Success
The great keys to success and to change your life have always been the same:
- Decide exactly what you want and where you want to go.
- Set a deadline and make a plan to get there.
- Take daily action on your plan.
- Resolve in advance that you will persevere until you succeed.
Learn From The Experts
You will not live long enough to figure it all out for yourself.
You can learn from others who have gone before. Acquire as many of them as possible. Then use them to help you do the things you want to do. Learn from their mistakes and benefit from their systems.
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The Feature Presentation of 2020
Throughout history, the most significant and world-changing events emerge in a low-key manner, without warning. 2020 has one such event.
While a global pandemic is unfolding right before our...
Bad Predictions
During 9/11, it was predicted that the event will permanently alter our sense of irony. In reality, 9/11 caused massive changes in air travel norms.
At the time of the 2009 financial crisis, Time Magazine declared that conspicuous consumption is now over. In reality, the economy made record gains after the 2009 dip.
Many others also predicted a long-term reluctance to spend. In reality, global sales of luxury items show an upward trend in the last 20 years.
Carmakers slashed production of SUVs, a symbol of excess, and just a ‘bubble’ according to an expert. In reality, Carmakers are slashing sedan production due to the high demand for SUVs.
The Unpredictability Factor
Predictions are inherently inaccurate because in the time horizon of 10 to 12 years many other things happen which cannot be foreseen, and which cause all kinds of good and bad effects. Speculation is useful and starts interesting discussions (like death rate predictions and economic consequences), helping us make the right steps.
The Prediction that can’t go wrong: The future is always unpredictable.