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The people who imagine disasters
Simulating a crisis
Modeling systems are used to provide a better understanding of a bad situation and how to possibly prevent it.
Groups of researchers, teams of engineers and companies are dedicated to simulate a range of disasters to help us all be better prepared.
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Simulating a crisis
Modeling systems are used to provide a better understanding of a bad situation and how to possibly prevent it.
Groups of researchers, teams of engineers and companies are dedicated to simulate a range of disasters to help us all be better prepared.
Why we use models
- A model is just a series of calculations that abstractly represent some systems in the real world. We use models all the time.
- We may work out the routes we could take to get to work at a specific time of the day. We use past data to make predictions about what we can expect in the future in a given set of circumstances.
- As the volume of data and the number of variables increase, the computational task would increase.
- Powerful models aim to forecast inherently unpredictable events and make use of machine learning to look for patterns in the data that would otherwise be missed.
The accuracy of a model
You can never accurately predict what's going to happen. Some efforts come close.
For example, models looking at the weather can achieve more than 90% accuracy. But crises are about change, and a model working from historical data may miss a dramatic and new change.
How people could respond to different situations
Knowing how people will respond in different situations is essential if you hope to keep them safe during a crisis. A type of simulation known as agent-based modelling attempts to understand interpersonal behaviours.
In stadiums, crowds of people can behave very differently depending on who they are and what kind of event has brought them to the venue. Depending on what sort of crowds are expected, architects may adjust the number of exits or the staircase designs to ensure a steady flow out of the venue during an evacuation. Modeling helps by getting the balance right.
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Risk Compensation
Risk protection is normally done to minimize the harm a particular activity can do to us. There are various things we do to reduce our risk, to make ourselves safer.
Behaviour scientists po...
Risk Compensation Effects
- When automobile safety laws were introduced, the drivers started taking more risks while driving, leading to more pedestrian accidents.
- Children (and even adults) take more physical risks while playing a sport with protective gear.
- Safety features like Anti-lock brakes in vehicles ended up increasing the accidents for taxi drivers in Germany
- Child-proof caps on medicine bottles made parents careless about their being opened by kids, including the ones which don’t have the safety feature.
The Carelessness Effect
Having a safety device in place, and armed with the knowledge that we can push the envelope a bit, the appetite for risk increases.
- People who have an emergency fund in place tend to be less careful about their investments.
- People wearing a face-mask in this global pandemic feel like they are safer in crowded places (It’s a face mask, not an Iron Man suit).
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Panic buying
Panic-buying supplies is one way people have coped with uncertainty over epidemics. People feel like their survival is threatened, and they need to do something to feel like they're in control.
...Causes of panic
Panic starts when the emotional center of the brain wants us to get out of harm's way now, with no care how we do it. However, the part of the brain that handles your behavioral responses first wants to think through the situation.
Panic sets in when the more rational part of your brain gets overrun by emotion to such an extent that adrenaline kicks in.
Serious drawbacks of panic
When we're in immediate danger of being run over by a car, the most rational response may be flight or freeze. But serious drawbacks may make us think only of ourselves, leaving loved-ones exposed.
Panic doesn't help with long-term threats. A more rational response is needed to assess the risk and make a plan to act.
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SpaceX
On May 30, 2020 the private company SpaceX launched astronauts to the International Space Station. This is said to be not only a huge step for the humanity, but also a sign that USA has become able...
SpaceX: Learning from failure
As much as the latest success of SpaceX has impressed everybody, it is worth mentioning that the company has not always known only achievements. The previous three launches had meant only failure and lots of money wasted. However, Elon Musk's company is now one of the top employers in the field while possessing an astonishing level production quality.
SpaceX has made space cool again. Attracting top talent has been one of the reasons SpaceX has been able to achieve its miraculous product success.
SpaceX and its innovations
One of the greatest business men of modern times, Elon Musk, came up with an idea to save on launch costs, while challenging the cycle time between launches.
By reusing the rocket boosters, he made sure to have several successful landings in three years. Furthermore, SpaceX is also equipped with the possibility to recover other parts from the launch, such as the fairing.
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