When we read scientific studies, it helps to keep in mind the following:
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The Sagan standard is related to astronomer Carl Sagan, who stated that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” (a dictum abbreviated as ECREE).
This means t...
Based on the Sagan standard, if someone claims that they came across a unicorn during they commute, they would be expected to brig stronger evidence in order to verify that claim than if they claimed that they came across a horse.
This happens because there is significant evidence for the existence of horses, but no relevant evidence to support the existence of unicorns, which makes the latter claim extraordinary.
Warren Buffett states that if you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.
Human nature is most concerned with short t...
It is an important skill to see the world as it is and not as we wish it should be.
None of the risks you take daily are likely to lead to death, but we act as though they would. An accurate understanding of reality is essential for producing good outcomes.
“The future will not be as good as the past but it doesn’t have to be.” This statement from Charlie Munger summed up his thoughts on public markets. Public market in the U.S. will not repeat the success of the late 90s in the 21st century.
Successful investors seem to focus on smaller, private markets, where it's more difficult to invest and where there's less competition. It's worth noting that advances in communication technology and the huge amount of capital created in the second half of the 20th century have created a more competitive public market.
Research shows that during disasters, altruism and kindness happen more than greed and selfishness. To tide over the current crisis requires optimism along with caution.
Action and accompli...
People with high hope have a good number of difficult, challenging goals, and a good scorecard of achievement.
They have lower rates of anxiety and depression and greater happiness. They cope well with problems that consume the rest of the world.
Instead of wishful thinking, we need to know what we want (specific goals), and have the drive and passion to go towards it (agency) and should be able to generate methods and devices to achieve what we want (pathways).
When we do a sum total of these three, we get hope: Hope= Goals + Agency + Pathways
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