Experts and bad decisions - Deepstash
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Experts and bad decisions

  • When experts and pundits don't acknowledge that they don't know, it can lead to bad decisions.
  • When uncertainty is admitted with a level-two problem, qualified experts' advice can get lost in the noise, or decision-makers might ask the wrong experts.
  • When the research frontier doesn't offer definitive answers or gives the wrong answers, it can result in bad policy.
  • A false confidence in understanding important questions will delay the discovery of real improvements.

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MORE IDEAS ON THIS

The wisdom required for the decision-makers

Knowing which questions fall into which category requires expertise. Politicians and executives might be experts in the area of decision-making, but they are seldom experts in the areas where they make decisions.

When there are decisions that require an expert perspective,...

112

271 reads

Admitting to uncertainty

True expertise means knowing the limits of one's knowledge.

Institutions can be designed to encourage real experts to admit uncertainty. The key lies in whether the question was answerable in the first place. Good experts should be willing to say they don'...

114

202 reads

Three kinds of questions for scientific knowledge

When communicating scientific knowledge to policymakers and the public, there are three levels of questions:

  • Level-one questions: Anyone with even modest expertise or access to a search engine can answer these questions. For example, 'Will price controls cause sh...

124

363 reads

How experts compete

Real experts are often confident in their claims, but in the private market, the opposite can be more common.

  • Self-appointed experts want airtime and overstate their conclusions.
  • Actual experts want to draw attention to their work. They may ...

128

461 reads

How to improve expert communication

  • Ask different experts different questions. Rather than asking experts: "Will this drug work?', ask some of them, "Is there good evidence about whether the drug will work?" Qualified experts won't always know the answer to the first problem, but will know the answer to the l...

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307 reads

Real and self-appointed experts

Real and self-appointed experts

The rise of social media means that experts willing to share their knowledge are more accessible to the public. One might think that communication between experts and decision-makers should be very good. But this is not the case.

Outlets are flooded with self-appoi...

122

833 reads

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