Experts and bad decisions
- When experts and pundits don't acknowledge that they don't know, it can lead to bad decisions.
- When uncertainty is admitted with a level-two problem, qualified experts' advice can get lost in the noise, or decision-makers might ask the wrong experts.
- When the research frontier doesn't offer definitive answers or gives the wrong answers, it can result in bad policy.
- A false confidence in understanding important questions will delay the discovery of real improvements.
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