Experts and bad decisions - Deepstash

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Experts and bad decisions

  • When experts and pundits don't acknowledge that they don't know, it can lead to bad decisions.
  • When uncertainty is admitted with a level-two problem, qualified experts' advice can get lost in the noise, or decision-makers might ask the wrong experts.
  • When the research frontier doesn't offer definitive answers or gives the wrong answers, it can result in bad policy.
  • A false confidence in understanding important questions will delay the discovery of real improvements.

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MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE

  • Ask different experts different questions. Rather than asking experts: "Will this drug work?', ask some of them, "Is there good evidence about whether the drug will work?" Qualified experts won't always know the answer to the first problem, but will know the answer to the l...

When communicating scientific knowledge to policymakers and the public, there are three levels of questions:

The rise of social media means that experts willing to share their knowledge are more accessible to the public. One might think that communication between experts and decision-makers should be very good. But this is not the case.

Real experts are often confident in their claims, but in the private market, the opposite can be more common.

Knowing which questions fall into which category requires expertise. Politicians and executives might be experts in the area of decision-making, but they are seldom experts in the areas where they make decisions.

True expertise means knowing the limits of one's knowledge.

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