Analyzing our options in uncertain times
In the face of radical uncertainty, instead of asking which option will give the best results, we should be asking which option will provide us with good-enough results under the broadest range of future states.
Instead of maximizing return on investments, we should be setting a financial goal. Then we should choose investments that will allow us to achieve that goal under the widest set of future financial circumstances.
It's perhaps time to rekindle social norms that serve to slow us down in an uncertain world.
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