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Common Probability Errors to Avoid
Understanding probability
Understanding probability will help you get a more correct picture of the world and help you make better decisions.
Most of us fall prey to the same handful of issues because aspects of probability go against what we think is intuitive.
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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
Breaking down the creative process
- Acquire a deep understanding of a specific system and the rules it functions with.
- Take a step outside of that system and look for something surprising that destabilizes its rules....
The meaning of "jootsing"
Jootsing means “jumping out of the system."
Philosopher Daniel C. Dennett describes the process of understanding a system in order to step outside of it as “jootsing,” using a term coined by Douglas Hofstadter.
Jootsing and creativity
The concept of jootsing shows us that constraints and restrictions are essential for creativity.
Most of us say we want to be creative—and we want the people we work with and for to be creative. The concept of jootsing reveals why we often end up preventing that from happening. Creativity is impossible without in some way going against rules that exist for a good reason.
Learning By Being In Play Mode
In both children and adults, being in ‘play mode’ is an essential and overlooked factor in the quest to learn about our surroundings, discovering our capabilities and finding new information. Not h...
The Opening Of Fresh Possibilities And New Horizons
When we take away the mind's impositions, restrictions, boundaries and the preset rules of how things should be, we can relook, dismantle and reform anything including how numbers and letters are represented or structured.
Getting Stuck On Numbers
- Number structures and counting systems have several advantages and disadvantages, and not all minds think in the same way when dealing with abstract concepts.
- Getting stuck on something is a boon, as it takes us towards the first principles, of what we are essentially trying to achieve.
To explore or to exploit
One challenge in life is knowing when to explore new opportunities, and when to focus harder on existing ones. Do we keep learning new ideas, or do we enjoy what we've come...
Exploring vs exploring: Consider how much time you have
When we consider seizing a day or seizing a lifetime, it is important to understand the interval over which we plan to enjoy them.
Explore when you have the time to use the resulting knowledge, exploit when you're ready to cash in.
Minimizing the pain of regret
Regret is the result of comparing what we did with what would have been the best.
We can minimize regret, especially in exploration, by trying to learn from others. In new territory, we can best prevent regret with optimism because we'll explore enough so that we won't regret any missed opportunity.