Understanding probability - Deepstash

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# Understanding probability

Understanding probability will help you get a more correct picture of the world and help you make better decisions.

Most of us fall prey to the same handful of issues because aspects of probability go against what we think is intuitive.

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### Assuming events are independent when they are not

When two event are interconnected, the former happening increases or decreases the probability of the latter happening.

• Your car insurance gets more expensive after an accident because car accidents are not independent events. A person who gets in one is more li...

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### When improbable events happen

While particular improbable events are improbable, the chance of any improbable event happening at all is highly probable.

• Your chances of getting struck by lightning are almost zero. But with so many people walking around and so many storms, it has to happen to som...

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### Not understanding when events are independent

In Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains: “A different kind of mistake occurs when events that are independent are not treated as such . . . If you flip a fair coin 1,000,000 times and get 1,000,000 heads in a row, the probability of getting heads on the next flip is still 1/2. The very ...

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Life is not about waiting for the storms to pass. It`s about learning how to dance in the rain.

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## More like this

### Take control

Most of us are unable to do our best thinking when we're under stress at work. The problem is, it is often the time when we need to be at our best.

Even though we can't make stress go away, understanding how our brain is wired can help us to make better decisions.

### Think Of The Consequences

Forget about how you feel in the moment. Pause, step back and think of the short-term and long-term consequences of your actions.

Doing so can help you think clearly, see the big picture, and make better decisions.

### 6. Think Of The Consequences

Forget about how you feel in the moment. Pause, step back and think of the short-term and long-term consequences of your actions.

Doing so can help you think clearly, see the big picture, and make better decisions.

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