Common Probability Errors to Avoid - Deepstash

deepstash

Beta

Deepstash brings you key ideas from the most inspiring articles like this one:

Read more efficiently

Save what inspires you

Remember anything

Common Probability Errors to Avoid

https://fs.blog/2020/11/common-probability-errors/

fs.blog

Common Probability Errors to Avoid

4

Key Ideas

Save all ideas

Understanding probability

Understanding probability

Understanding probability will help you get a more correct picture of the world and help you make better decisions.

Most of us fall prey to the same handful of issues because aspects of probability go against what we think is intuitive.

105 SAVES

610 READS

VIEW

Assuming events are independent when they are not

When two event are interconnected, the former happening increases or decreases the probability of the latter happening.

  • Your car insurance gets more expensive after an accident because car accidents are not independent events. A person who gets in one is more likely to get into another in the future.
  • Most of our plans don’t go as we’d like. We get delayed, we have to backtrack, we have to make unexpected changes. Sometimes we think we can compensate for a delay in one part of a plan by moving faster later on. But the parts of a plan are not independent. A delay in one area makes delays elsewhere more likely as problems compound and accumulate.

116 SAVES

503 READS

Not understanding when events are independent

In Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains: “A different kind of mistake occurs when events that are independent are not treated as such . . . If you flip a fair coin 1,000,000 times and get 1,000,000 heads in a row, the probability of getting heads on the next flip is still 1/2. The very definition of statistical independence between two events is that the outcome of one has no effect on the outcome of another.

100 SAVES

406 READS

When improbable events happen

While particular improbable events are improbable, the chance of any improbable event happening at all is highly probable.

  • Your chances of getting struck by lightning are almost zero. But with so many people walking around and so many storms, it has to happen to someone sooner or later.
  • The same is true for clusters of improbable events. The chance of any individual getting struck by lightning more than once is even closer to zero than the chance of it happening once. Yet when we look at all the people in the world, it’s certain to happen to someone.

91 SAVES

420 READS

SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:

Learning By Being In Play Mode

Learning By Being In Play Mode

In both children and adults, being in ‘play mode’ is an essential and overlooked factor in the quest to learn about our surroundings, discovering our capabilities and finding new information. Not h...

The Opening Of Fresh Possibilities And New Horizons

When we take away the mind's impositions, restrictions, boundaries and the preset rules of how things should be, we can relook, dismantle and reform anything including how numbers and letters are represented or structured.

Getting Stuck On Numbers

  • Number structures and counting systems have several advantages and disadvantages, and not all minds think in the same way when dealing with abstract concepts.
  • Getting stuck on something is a boon, as it takes us towards the first principles, of what we are essentially trying to achieve.

one more idea

Breaking down the creative process

  • Acquire a deep understanding of a specific system and the rules it functions with.
  • Take a step outside of that system and look for something surprising that destabilizes its rules....

The meaning of "jootsing"

Jootsing means “jumping out of the system."

Philosopher Daniel C. Dennett describes the process of understanding a system in order to step outside of it as “jootsing,” using a term coined by Douglas Hofstadter.

Jootsing and creativity

The concept of jootsing shows us that constraints and restrictions are essential for creativity.

Most of us say we want to be creative—and we want the people we work with and for to be creative. The concept of jootsing reveals why we often end up preventing that from happening. Creativity is impossible without in some way going against rules that exist for a good reason.

To explore or to exploit

To explore or to exploit

One challenge in life is knowing when to explore new opportunities, and when to focus harder on existing ones. Do we keep learning new ideas, or do we enjoy what we've come...

Exploring vs exploring: Consider how much time you have

When we consider seizing a day or seizing a lifetime, it is important to understand the interval over which we plan to enjoy them.

Explore when you have the time to use the resulting knowledge, exploit when you're ready to cash in.

Minimizing the pain of regret

Regret is the result of comparing what we did with what would have been the best.

We can minimize regret, especially in exploration, by trying to learn from others. In new territory, we can best prevent regret with optimism because we'll explore enough so that we won't regret any missed opportunity.