Assuming events are independent when they are not - Deepstash

deepstash

Beta

deepstash

Beta

Common Probability Errors to Avoid

Assuming events are independent when they are not

When two event are interconnected, the former happening increases or decreases the probability of the latter happening.

  • Your car insurance gets more expensive after an accident because car accidents are not independent events. A person who gets in one is more likely to get into another in the future.
  • Most of our plans don’t go as we’d like. We get delayed, we have to backtrack, we have to make unexpected changes. Sometimes we think we can compensate for a delay in one part of a plan by moving faster later on. But the parts of a plan are not independent. A delay in one area makes delays elsewhere more likely as problems compound and accumulate.

116 SAVES

500 READS


EXPLORE MORE AROUND THESE TOPICS:

SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:

Breaking down the creative process
  • Acquire a deep understanding of a specific system and the rules it functions with.
  • Take a step outside of that system and look for something surprising that destabilizes its rules....
The meaning of "jootsing"

Jootsing means “jumping out of the system."

Philosopher Daniel C. Dennett describes the process of understanding a system in order to step outside of it as “jootsing,” using a term coined by Douglas Hofstadter.

Jootsing and creativity

The concept of jootsing shows us that constraints and restrictions are essential for creativity.

Most of us say we want to be creative—and we want the people we work with and for to be creative. The concept of jootsing reveals why we often end up preventing that from happening. Creativity is impossible without in some way going against rules that exist for a good reason.

To explore or to exploit
To explore or to exploit

One challenge in life is knowing when to explore new opportunities, and when to focus harder on existing ones. Do we keep learning new ideas, or do we enjoy what we've come...

Exploring vs exploring: Consider how much time you have

When we consider seizing a day or seizing a lifetime, it is important to understand the interval over which we plan to enjoy them.

Explore when you have the time to use the resulting knowledge, exploit when you're ready to cash in.

Minimizing the pain of regret

Regret is the result of comparing what we did with what would have been the best.

We can minimize regret, especially in exploration, by trying to learn from others. In new territory, we can best prevent regret with optimism because we'll explore enough so that we won't regret any missed opportunity.

Being Smart Is Not Enough
Being Smart Is Not Enough

Most companies hire the smartest people they can find, as they look for candidates who can provide innovative ideas, do the best kind of ‘coding’ or make a great presentation/report.

Wh...

The Geniuses and The Social Butterflies

Geniuses: An organization filled with genius-level workforce won’t have people learning from each other, turning into an anti-social organization full of isolated, lonely performers.

Butterflies: Socially adept workers pollinate good ideas and spread innovation around, even ideas that may not be concrete, brilliant or easily visible. This makes the butterflies an essential part of the pollination of information in the organization, creating a healthier, more productive environment.