The accumulation of knowledge - Deepstash

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Explore Or Exploit? How To Choose New Opportunities

The accumulation of knowledge

Not all of our explorations will lead to something better or be satisfying, but with enough exploration behind us, many of them will.

Failures provide us with useful information that will enable us to make better explore or exploit decisions.

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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:

Understanding probability
Understanding probability

Understanding probability will help you get a more correct picture of the world and help you make better decisions.

Most of us fall prey to the same handful of issues beca...

Assuming events are independent when they are not

When two event are interconnected, the former happening increases or decreases the probability of the latter happening.

  • Your car insurance gets more expensive after an accident because car accidents are not independent events. A person who gets in one is more likely to get into another in the future.
  • Most of our plans don’t go as we’d like. We get delayed, we have to backtrack, we have to make unexpected changes. Sometimes we think we can compensate for a delay in one part of a plan by moving faster later on. But the parts of a plan are not independent. A delay in one area makes delays elsewhere more likely as problems compound and accumulate.
Not understanding when events are independent

In Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains: “A different kind of mistake occurs when events that are independent are not treated as such . . . If you flip a fair coin 1,000,000 times and get 1,000,000 heads in a row, the probability of getting heads on the next flip is still 1/2. The very definition of statistical independence between two events is that the outcome of one has no effect on the outcome of another.

The spiral of silence
The spiral of silence

The spiral of silence is a human communication theory developed by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in the 1960s.

The theory explains how societies form shared opinions an how we make deci...

How the spiral of silence works

According to the theory of the spiral of silence, our desire to fit in with others means we will speak up if we think our opinion will be popular, or avoid expressing an opinion if it is unpopular.

The feedback loop means each time someone voices a popular opinion, the positive feedback from the group reinforces the feeling that it is safe to do so. Conversely, receiving a negative response for a divergent opinion will strengthen the view that they should avoid expressing it.

The implications of the spiral of silence
  1. The result of the spiral of silence is that few will publicly voice a minority opinion and will instead will nurse it in private.
  2. The possibility of conflict makes us less likely to voice any opinion. If we want to know what people think, we need to remove the possibility of negative consequences.
  3. When we see a sudden change in mainstream opinions, it can be because of a shift in what is acceptable to express, not what people really think.
  4. Highly vocal people of a minority opinion can make their views seem far more prevalent and acceptable than they really are.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Curiosity is antifragile, like an addiction; magnified by attempts to satisfy it.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
25 Pages A Day

For developing the habits of reading, many follow the strategy of reading 25 pages a day, which can create your interest at a starting pace of time.

But while reading, if one finds reading joyful and interesting one can jump the stipulated limit of pages, accordingly.

Benefits Of Reading: Improved Insights
  • Reading a few pages before sleeping or during a break opens the windows of the mind, nourishing the brain and promoting imagination and positivity.
  • At 25 pages a day, an average person is reading 9125 pages in a year promoting the enhancing of skills, thoughts, vocabulary and knowledge. Plus reading is an addiction(albeit a good one!).
  • Reading different genres develops the various regions of our brain, elevating innovative thoughts and cross-connection of fresh ideas.