Četiri kriterijuma za klasifikovanje događaja kao dogadaja crnog labuda.Veoma je teško odlučiti da li bi rijedak događaj trebalo da bude klasifikovan kao dogadaj crnog labuda ili ne.Generalno, da bi dogadaj bio klasifikovan kao crni labud, trebalo bi da ispunjava četiri kriterijuma.

Klasifikovanje Crnog labuda

Događaj bi trebalo da bude blokbaster - ogroman, kao što je epidemija španske gripe.

2. Blokbaster - Crni labud

Kada se događaj odigrao, možda je za posmatrače dogadaja crnog labuda to bilo ogromno iznenađenje, dok možda postoje ljudi za koje to uopšte nije bilo iznenadujuće.Na primjer, za naučnike koji godinama rade na razvoju atomske bombe, upotreba atomske snage nikada nije bila iznenadujuća, već je to bio očekivani dogadaj.

4. Postoje ljudi koji znaju - Crni labud

Znanje stečeno u učionici često posjeduje nekakvu sterilnu, mračnu kvalitetu koja sprječava razumijevanje zbivanja u stvarnom svijetu. Na testu inteligencije, kao i u bilo kom akademskom okruženju (uključujući i sport), doktor Džon bi umnogome nadmašio debelog Tonija. Ali debeli Toni nadmašio bi doktora Džona u svakoj drugoj mogućoj ekološki stvarnoj situaciji.Doktor Džon - Tipični primjer ličnosti kojoj je cijeli svijet zasnovan na matematičkom modelu, preciznosti i pedantnosti. Posao i obaveze shvata kranje ozbiljno.Debeli Toni - Tipični primjer ličnosti koji je veoma daleko od štrebera. Uspješan je, vedre naravi, druželjubiv. Ima zapanjujuću naviku da novac zarađuje bez napora, iz zabave, bez natezanja.

Ludička zabluda ili štreberska neizvjesnost

Kada se događaj desio i prašina se slegla, naučnici podataka koji su bili dio posmatračke grupe trebalo bi da shvate da i nije bio veliko iznenadenje.Posmatrači nikada ne obraćaju pažnju na neke važne tragove.Da imaju kapacitete i inicijativu, dogadaj crnog labuda bi mogao da se predvidi. Na primjer, epidemija španske gripe imala je neke tragove za koje se znalo da se ignorišu prije nego što je postala globalna epidemija.Također, Projekat Menhetn bio je pokrenut godinama pre nego što je atomska bomba bačena na Hirošimu. Ljudi u posmatračkoj grup jednostavno nisu mogli da povežu tačke.

3. I nije neko iznenađenje - Crni labud

Kada se događaj desio, za posmatrače bi morao da bude ogromno iznenađenje, na primjer, bacanje atomske bombe na Hirošimu.

1. Iznenađenje - Crni labud

books

Books

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.   Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”   For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.   Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.   Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb   “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ   Praise for The Black Swan   “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)   “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail   “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times   “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate   “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal   “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times   “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an accomplished writer whose work has resonated with readers around the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has published several books that explore a range of topics, from fiction to nonfiction, and has received critical acclaim for the ability to weave compelling narratives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's writing style is known for its depth and authenticity, and has earned quite a loyal following of readers.

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