Risky Business - Deepstash

Risky Business

When starting a project that requires time, energy and resources, the cost-benefit ratio is a good rule for deciding if the plunge is worth it.

One has to think about the risk in terms of probability, while also keeping in mind what is at stake: Will the effort, time, money and resources that are spent will go down the drain or will all of it still provide value in case the primary goal is not reached.

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Taking risks is a way towards potential growth, even if it is not according to the original plan.

When entrepreneurs fail at their startup, a large chunk of them still benefit by:

  • New connections and friendships
  • New job opportunities
  • A pivot towards another company.

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One needs to take into consideration that any risky decision has the probability of failure, keeping in mind the potential benefits of not reaching the goal.

The ideal decision model should:

  1. Calculate or research about the baseline likelihood of success.
  2. Take a self-assessment of one’s own ability.
  3. Take into account the situation where the results of the decision are less than required.
  4. Take into consideration the opportunity cost.
  5. Ask oneself if the activity being undertaken is providing joy even without any outcome.

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The way you frame your decision at the outset can make all the difference. 

State your decision problems carefully, acknowledge their complexity and avoid unwarranted assumptions and option-limiting prejudices.

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When to Study

Studying time is more efficient if it is spread out over many sessions throughout the semester, with a little extra right before the exam.

Cover each piece of info five times from when you first learn it until your exam. It will enable you to retain the information with minimal effort.

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Risk and Uncertainty

People often confuse risk with uncertainty. But the terms "risk" and "uncertainty" do not refer to the same thing.

  • Risk is precise and quantifiable.
  • Uncertainty is when the underlying system is not understood.

The more you understand a system, the more able you are to convert uncertainty into risk.

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