Smart Risk - Deepstash

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Smart Risk

Uncertainty hides the risks of our decisions. This makes us tread very carefully. But, in reality, most of the decision terrain isn't nearly so dangerous. Things that look risky often aren't, and things that look routine and safe, often are.

The solution is to gain more knowledge and understanding of the specific area. This will clear the fog, often revealing a gentle passage.

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619 reads

Risk and Uncertainty

Risk and Uncertainty

People often confuse risk with uncertainty. But the terms "risk" and "uncertainty" do not refer to the same thing.

  • Risk is precise and quantifiable.
  • Uncertainty is when the underlying system is not understood.

The more you understand a system, the more able you are to convert uncertainty into risk.

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1.12K reads

Risk and Arrogance

Once you understand a system, you can change some risk into uncertainty. Sometimes you can do this completely, but other times you can limit your range of uncertainties to a calculable level.

More knowledge allows you more controlled risk. However, sometimes, people overestimate their knowledge. They may think they understand a system when they really don't.

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541 reads

Coping with Uncertainty

  • Risk can be calculated by figuring out the odds.
  • Uncertainties can't be computed. Even if you could do the math, uncertainties don't have any numbers to calculate.

Most people deal with uncertainty by only doing things others have done in the past. But this tends to restrict people by repeating experiences they've had or knowing the experiences of others. This can create a trap where you avoid good opportunities just because nobody has tried them.

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694 reads

Uncertainty and Framing

The prospect theory shows that people are often willing to make riskier decisions to avoid losses than to make gains - even when the situation is identical but framed differently. For example, a 30% chance of death and a 70% chance of life are two different ways to describe the same thing.

If uncertainty is the default, an irrationally strong influence will be exerted on the outcome.

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CURATED BY

ang_n

"An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin

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