Average mortality rates - Deepstash
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Average mortality rates

If one assumes that old people are unproductive consumers of government benefits, then a rising OADR can be problematic. But, policymakers only focus on chronological age, while the sociological components of ageing have shifted over time.

Two factors drive average mortality rates:

  1. As countries industrialize, they have lower birth rates. Older cohorts of the population will increase in size, and the average overall mortality will rise.
  2. However, people are younger for longer, offsetting the ageing effect.

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Mortality-adjusted indicators

The standard chronological measure of age makes less sense because the biological age has changed in relation to chronological age.

In the US, a 75-year-old today has the same mortality rate as a 65-year-old in 1952. In Japan, 80 is the new 65. This brings a very different perspective on ...

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87 reads

The old-age dependency ratio (OADR)

Economic doomsayers have predicted that the ageing populations of industrial and post-industrial countries will be bad for the economy because fewer people will work and contribute to economic growth. More people will collect pensions and demand health care.

  • The Un...

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The balance between the ageing and longevity effect

  • The ageing effect centres on the negatives associated with the demographic doomsayers narrative.
  • The longevity effect means if people are leading longer, productive lives, they can make a bigger contribution than the generations before them.

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A policy challenge

From the perspective of mortality-adjustments, one can see a flawed assumption underlying the conventional demographic doomsayers who don't distinguish between ageing and longevity effects.

A more nuanced approach is needed that reflects the multidimensional aspects of ageing

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Investing in longevity

Advances in anti-ageing technology could increase people's lifespan to 150. This technology could be beneficial for countries suffering from the ageing effect.

In countries where the longevity effect is dominant, there will be vast economic and social opportunitie...

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