The Generalization Instinct

• This is that irresistible temptation we have to divide all kinds of things into two distinct and often conflicting groups, with an imagined gap in between.
• The gap instinct makes us imagine division where there is just a smooth range, differences where ther...

Remember that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us. Expect bad news.

• Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better). Convince yourself that things can be both better...

A single perspective can limit your imagination; look at problems from many angles to get a more accurate understanding and find practical solutions.

• Test your ideas. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
• Limit...

The size instinct describes our tendency to get things out of proportion, or misjudge the size of things.

To avoid getting things out of proportion you need only these tools: comparing and dividing:

• Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single...

Remember that categories are misleading. So question your categories.

• Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise categories
• Look for similarities across groups.

The urgency instinct describes our tendency to take immediate action in the face of perceived imminent danger, and in doing so, amplifying our other instincts.

To control the urgency instinct, take small steps.

• Take a breath. When your urgency...

The fear instinct describes our tendency to pay more attention to frightening things.

These fears are hardwired deep in our brains for obvious evolutionary reasons. Fears of physical harm, captivity, and poison once helped our ancestors survive. In modern times, perception...

This instinct describes our tendency to assume that a line will just continue straight and ignoring that such lines are rare in reality.

But don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or double...

Rember that reality is often not polarized at all. To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.

• Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at all.

It's true that the world population is increasing. Very fast. But it’s not just increasing.

The “just” implies that, if nothing is done, the population will just keep on growing. It implies that some drastic action is needed in order to stop the growth. That is the...

The negativity instinct describes our tendency to notice the bad more than the good.

So when you hear about something terrible, calm yourself by asking, If there had been an equally large positive improvement, would I have heard about that?

Recognize when frightening things get your attention, and remember that these are not necessarily the riskiest. Calculate the risks.

• The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected precisely because...

The blame instinct describes our tendency to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened.

• To control the blame instinct, resist finding a scapegoat. Look for causes, not villains. Accept that bad things can happen without anyone inte...

This is the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures. It’s the idea that things are as they are for ineluctable, inescapable reasons: they have always been this way and will never change.

Remember that many things...