Weston I.'s Key Ideas from Factfulness
by Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Ola Rosling

Rember that reality is often not polarized at all. To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.

• Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at all.
• Beware comparisons of extremes. In all groups, there are some at the top and some at the bottom. But even when the difference is extremely unfair, the majority is usually somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be.
• The view from up here. Remember, looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but it’s not.

The negativity instinct describes our tendency to notice the bad more than the good.

So when you hear about something terrible, calm yourself by asking, If there had been an equally large positive improvement, would I have heard about that?

Remember that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us. Expect bad news.

• Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better). Convince yourself that things can be both better and bad.
• Good news is not news. Good news is almost never reported. When you see bad news, ask whether equally, positive news would have reached you.
• Gradual improvement is not news. When a trend is gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvement.
• More news does not equal more suffering

This instinct describes our tendency to assume that a line will just continue straight and ignoring that such lines are rare in reality.

But don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or double lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and no parents would expect it to.

It's true that the world population is increasing. Very fast. But it’s not just increasing.

The “just” implies that, if nothing is done, the population will just keep on growing. It implies that some drastic action is needed in order to stop the growth. That is the misconception based on our instinct to assume that lines are straight.

The fear instinct describes our tendency to pay more attention to frightening things.

These fears are hardwired deep in our brains for obvious evolutionary reasons. Fears of physical harm, captivity, and poison once helped our ancestors survive. In modern times, perceptions of these dangers still trigger our fear instinct.

Recognize when frightening things get your attention, and remember that these are not necessarily the riskiest. Calculate the risks.

• The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected precisely because it is scary.
• Risk = danger × exposure. How dangerous is something? And how much are you exposed to it?
• When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.

The size instinct describes our tendency to get things out of proportion, or misjudge the size of things.

To avoid getting things out of proportion you need only these tools: comparing and dividing:

• Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for comparisons.
• Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when comparing between countries or regions.

• This instinct can make us mistakenly group together things that are actually very different. 
• It can make us assume everything or everyone in one category is similar.
• It can make us jump to conclusions about a whole category based on a few, or even just one, unusual example.

Remember that categories are misleading. So question your categories.

• Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise categories
• Look for similarities across groups.
• Look for differences across groups. Do not assume that what applies for one group applies for another /
• Beware of “the majority.” Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
• Beware of vivid examples. They are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.
• When something looks strange, be curious and humble.

This is the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures. It’s the idea that things are as they are for ineluctable, inescapable reasons: they have always been this way and will never change.

Remember that many things (people, countries, religions, and cultures) appear to be constant just because the change is happening slowly, and remember that even small, slow changes gradually add up to big changes.

A single perspective can limit your imagination; look at problems from many angles to get a more accurate understanding and find practical solutions.

• Test your ideas. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
• Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field: be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the expertise of others.
• Be open to ideas from other fields.
• Welcome complexity. History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Combine ideas. Compromise.

The blame instinct describes our tendency to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened.

• To control the blame instinct, resist finding a scapegoat. Look for causes, not villains. Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to. 
• Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing. 

The urgency instinct describes our tendency to take immediate action in the face of perceived imminent danger, and in doing so, amplifying our other instincts.

To control the urgency instinct, take small steps.

• Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information.
• Be wary of drastic action. Ask what the side effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested.