One of the hallmarks of the “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH) is that current information and future information that is known today will get priced into an asset.
If everyone knows that Apple will beat earnings this quarter, those expected earnings will get priced into Apple’s stock even before earnings are actually reported. Likewise, if everyone begins to believe that there is a 50% chance that PlanB’s model will still be working well in 2028 the fair value or expected value of Bitcoin should be $1,500,000 today.
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