This bias or error is about how one can systematically overestimate their chances of success. The probability of your start up being successful, of you becoming a royalty winning writer or becoming the next Led Zeppelin are next to zero, and yet, we ignore it. The reason we ignore it is the success stories that we hear about. Let's say , we hear of one Soldier who made it out of the war, a hero, and alive, and we assume that war is safe.

Survivorship Bias

We tend to try to see patterns where none exist <ul><li>Patterns in clouds</li><li>Faces in food</li><li>Patterns in stokc markets</li></ul>There are lot of stuff in which we may think there is a pattern but more often than not theu are just conicidental. Humans are oversensitive to patternsWhen you think you have a pattern, consider it luck and the analyse it or have it analysed through and expert. Try to disprove it.

Clustering Illusion

Although this book may not hold the key to happiness, at the very least it acts as insurance against t﻿oo m﻿uch unhappiness.

<ul><li>Cosmetics products are sold by beautiful models and the products have no causal effect on their good looks</li><li>Good universities are good because they take good students in and not the other way around</li><li>And the main analogy from which the error gets its name , swimmers with great physique are good swimmers in most cases, and not the other way around </li></ul>In short , the intent to seek relation between every choice and corresponding results is erroneous as we maybe making wrong assumptions

Swimmer's body illusion

It's very common that each and every one of us makes mistakes, what the author, Rolf Dobelli says, experts call as cognitive errors.Some of these errors are:<ul><li>We overestimate our knowledge more often</li><li>Fear of losing, drives us much more than gaining something of similar value</li><li>We tend to adjust our behaviour in the presence of others</li><li>Exceptional stories make us neglect the average success rate of an action</li><li>And many such more...</li></ul>

Introduction- Cognitive errors

Have you ever . . . Invested time in something that, in hindsight, just wasn't worth it? Paid too much in an eBay auction? Continued to do something you knew was bad for you? Sold stocks too late, or too early? Taken credit for success, but blamed failure on external circumstances? Backed the wrong horse? These are examples of what the author calls cognitive biases, simple errors all of us make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices: whether in dealing with personal problems or business negotiations, trying to save money or earn profits, or merely working out what we really want in life—and strategizing the best way to get it. Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision making—at work, at home, every day. From why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

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A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger. The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t.Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

Rolf Dobelli is a Swiss author and businessman. He began his writing career as a novelist in 2002, but he is best known internationally for his bestselling non-fiction The Art of Thinking Clearly (2011, English 2013), for which The Times has called him "the self-help guru the Germans love".

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