How to use scenario planning
- Identify your driving forces: the big shifts in society, economics, technology and politics in the future and see how it will affect your company.
- Identify your critical uncertainties: pick 1-2 of the driving forces (with the most impact).
- Develop a range of plausible scenarios: Form a kind of matrix with your two critical uncertainties as axis and depending on what direction each of the uncertainties will take, you are now able to draw four possible scenarios for the future.
- Discuss the implications: discuss the various implications and impacts of each scenario and start to reconsider your strategy: set your mission and your goals while taking into account every scenario.
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Scenario planning
It aims to define your critical uncertainties and develop plausible scenarios in order to discuss the impacts and the responses to give for each one of them. If you are aware of what could happen, you are more likely to deal with what will happen.
It involves identifying a specif...
Scenario Planning: The Eight-Step Process
It has two parts, with the first five steps, concentrating on which particular scenarios to work on, and the rest three steps towards the story, implications and indicators.
- Focal Issue: identify what to focus on.
- Key Factors: brainstorm about the various factors influencin...
Some pitfalls to avoid
- Don't fall into the trap is to be paralyzed by the multitude of possibilities. Keep it simple and focus on two major uncertainties.
- Don't believe that you have to choose one particular scenario and build your strategy around it. Scenario planning is not about choosing j...
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