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Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/scenario-planning-a-tool-for-strategic-thinking/

sloanreview.mit.edu

Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking
References 1. C. Cerf and V. Navasky, The Experts Speak (New York: Pantheon Books, 1984). 2. P.J.H. Schoemaker and C.A.J.M. van de Heijden, "Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell," Planning Review 20 (1992): 41-46. 3. C. Sunter, The World and South Africa in the 1990's (Cape Town, South Africa: Human and Rousseau Tafelberg, 1987).

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Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning

Managers who can expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures will be much better positioned to take advantage of the unexpected opportunities that appear.

By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios that will help to compensate for decision-making errors from overconfidence and tunnel vision. That’s what scenario planning does. 

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