Dreborg, K.H. (1996) ‘Essence of backcasting’, Futures, 28(9), pp. 813–828.

Backcasting is a research method that plans the future, which starts with defining a desirable future and then works backward to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. It is used to assess the feasibility of an idea or project.

Unlike forecasting, which predicts the future based on current trends, backcasting envisions a specific future outcome and determines the steps needed to achieve it.

• the problem to be studied is complex, affecting many sectors and levels of society
• there is a need for major change, ie. when marginal changes within the prevailing order will not be sufficient
• dominant trends are part of the problem, these trends are often the cornerstones of forecasts

The result of a backcasting study is usually an alternative images of the future, thoroughly analysed as to their feasibility and consequeces. For example, they are made to high-light polarities, like solar Sweden VS unclear Sweden. 

A backcasting study is meant to provide input to a policy-forming process, with many actors. It is addressed to many actors such as political parties, governmental authorities, municipalities, organisations, private enterprises, and an informed general public. 

Backcasting studies should aim for a widening perception of possible solutions among various actor, and highlight consequences of strategic choices in society.