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A common decision-making problem is failing to have enough imagination with regards to what could go wrong or falling victim to simple overconfidence.
Envision the future. There’s evidence that this exercise can broaden your outlook and highlight problems that might not come to mind otherwise.
... when you're hungry, or sleepy, or angry.
Research has shown that our susceptibility to bias increases when we’re stressed, whether because of exhaustion, hunger, or a heightened emotional state.
Delaying a crucial decision, if possible, might be preferable to making it under conditions of stress.
When it comes to decisions, conduct whatever research you need to and make your estimate — and then go through the whole thing again, generating a second estimate. Take the average of the two estimates, and you’ll likely make a better decision than you would if you used either on its own.
When it comes to situations where the benefits of a good decision lie in the future (reduced weight) but compelling temptations to make bad decisions are all too present (nachos), writing down a specific plan of attack can be helpful.
It can help decision-makers avoid follow-through failures due to both procrastination and forgetfulness.
For a wide range of decisions involving self-restraint, there’s pretty overwhelming evidence that most people are bad at making healthy in-the-moment choices.
Decide well in advance of the moment when those decisions will take effect. Present You, at the supermarket after a meal, is probably a better nutritional decision-maker than Future You, standing in front of the fridge, inexplicably starving at 3 a.m.
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Being aware of your own biases doesn't mean you will be free of them. You need a system that will help prevent your proclivities from taking control.
It wasn't an individual that got people to the moon. It was all of NASA.
There should be recognition of how many people really should be involved and the need for mechanisms to deliver smarter decisions.
You make one decision, wait, make a second decision, and then make a compromise between the two.
Averaging the two judgments tends to outperform trying to identify the better of the tw...
If you only allow yourself your vice while you’re simultaneously being virtuous, you’ll spend more time doing things that are good for you and less time doing the “bad” things.
The researchers call this “pre-bundling” and say it allows people to couple instantly gratifying activities (such as watching trashy TV) with a behavior that’s beneficial in the long term but requires willpower (like working out).
Next time you’re faced with a problem with many possible answers, pinpoint your end goals and then come up with a solution for each.
This is likely to lead to the generation of a diverse set of options covering multiple categories of solutions.