A common decision-making problem is failing to have enough imagination with regards to what could go wrong or falling victim to simple overconfidence.  Envision the future. There’s evidence that this exercise can broaden your outlook and highlight problems that might not come to mind otherwise.

Mental time travel

When it comes to decisions, conduct whatever research you need to and make your estimate — and then go through the whole thing again, generating a second estimate. Take the average of the two estimates, and you’ll likely make a better decision than you would if you used either on its own.

Estimate twice, decide once

For a wide range of decisions involving self-restraint, there’s pretty overwhelming evidence that most people are bad at making healthy in-the-moment choices. Decide well in advance of the moment when those decisions will take effect. Present You, at the supermarket after a meal, is probably a better nutritional decision-maker than Future You, standing in front of the fridge, inexplicably starving at 3 a.m.

Decide in advance

... when you're hungry, or sleepy, or angry. Research has shown that our susceptibility to bias increases when we’re stressed, whether because of exhaustion, hunger, or a heightened emotional state. Delaying a crucial decision, if possible, might be preferable to making it under conditions of stress.

Don’t make an important decision

When it comes to situations where the benefits of a good decision lie in the future (reduced weight) but compelling temptations to make bad decisions are all too present (nachos), writing down a specific plan of attack can be helpful.  It can help decision-makers avoid follow-through failures due to both procrastination and forgetfulness.

Use a “planning prompt” 

Experts have known for a while that our decision-making processes are flawed — and often in predictable ways. We easily succumb to all sorts of biases that prevent us from making smart choices.

Decision making and biases

Humans may have impressive minds capable of great feats, but experts have known for a while that our decision-making processes are flawed - and often in predictable ways. We easily succumb to all sorts of biases that prevent us from making smartchoices.

Estimate twice, decide once

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