Talha Mumtaz ✔️'s Key Ideas from Thinking in Bets
by Annie Duke

Every decision is a wager on what will happen next. Since we rarely have complete information, we must think in probabilities rather than absolutes.

A bet is simply a decision about an uncertain future.

Just because something worked doesn't mean it was a good decision. Luck and hidden factors influence results.

We are quick to judge decisions by their results, even when luck plays a role.

Resulting is when we judge a decision solely by its outcome. A good decision can lead to a bad result, and vice versa.

Good decisions can still have bad outcomes, and bad decisions can sometimes work out.

The best decision-makers assign probabilities to different outcomes instead of assuming something will or won't happen.

Instead of saying I'm sure, try I think there's an 80% chance.

Life is unpredictable, and we rarely have all the information. Accepting uncertainty leads to better decision-making.

Acknowledging what we don't know helps us make smarter choices.

The goal isn't to be right all the time, but to improve the accuracy of our thinking. Being open to new information is key.

Winning doesn't come from always being right. It comes from being less wrong over time.

Admitting uncertainty doesnt mean weakness it means you're thinking rationally and open to learning.

The best decision-makers are comfortable with "I don't know."

A structured decision-making process prevents emotional bias. We should analyze past decisions and refine our approach.

Great poker players don't rely on luck; they rely on process.

When we know the outcome, we think it was inevitable. This distorts our ability to learn from past mistakes.

he fact that something happened doesn't mean it was bound to happen.

Instead of going all in on a decision, test ideas with small, reversible bets to gather more information.

Good decision-makers place a series of small, intelligent bets.

Feedback from people who challenge your thinking helps improve decisions. Look for honest, smart, and rational thinkers.

Find people who care more about getting it right than being right.

Seek out different viewpoints instead of surrounding yourself with agreement. This prevents blind spots.

A group that only agrees with you isn't helping you make better decisions.

Ask: What if the opposite happened?Imagining alternative scenarios helps refine future decisions.

Considering what didn't happen is as important as what did.

Emotions distort probability. Train yourself to stay logical, especially when stakes are high.

Emotions can hijack good decision-making.

The best decisions focus on long-term success, not immediate results.

Great decision-makers think beyond the next hand.

Even successful outcomes should be analyzed for mistakes. Dont assume success means you did everything right.

Examine the decisions behind both your wins and losses.

Poker players analyze risk, probabilities, and long-term success while gamblers chase luck. Be a poker player.

Great decision-makers play the long game, adjusting as they go.