Seek out different viewpoints instead of surrounding yourself with agreement. This prevents blind spots. A group that only agrees with you isn't helping you make better decisions.

Encourage Dissenting Opinions

Good decisions don't always lead to good outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to failure. Instead of focusing on results, we should assess decisions based on available information and probability.

Overview (Take A Glance)

Every decision is a wager on what will happen next. Since we rarely have complete information, we must think in probabilities rather than absolutes.A bet is simply a decision about an uncertain future.

Decisions are Bets on the Future

Just because something worked doesn't mean it was a good decision. Luck and hidden factors influence results.We are quick to judge decisions by their results, even when luck plays a role.

Separate Decision Quality from Outcome

Resulting is when we judge a decision solely by its outcome. A good decision can lead to a bad result, and vice versa.Good decisions can still have bad outcomes, and bad decisions can sometimes work out.

Avoid Resulting

The best decision-makers assign probabilities to different outcomes instead of assuming something will or won't happen.Instead of saying I'm sure, try I think there's an 80% chance.

Think in Probabilities, Not Certainities

When we know the outcome, we think it was inevitable. This distorts our ability to learn from past mistakes.he fact that something happened doesn't mean it was bound to happen.

Beware of Hindsight Bias

Even successful outcomes should be analyzed for mistakes. Dont assume success means you did everything right.Examine the decisions behind both your wins and losses.

Learn From Both Wins & Losses

Poker players analyze risk, probabilities, and long-term success while gamblers chase luck. Be a poker player.Great decision-makers play the long game, adjusting as they go.

Think Like A Poker Player, Not A Gambler

Admitting uncertainty doesnt mean weakness it means you're thinking rationally and open to learning.The best decision-makers are comfortable with "I don't know."

Use I'm Not Sure As A Strength

Ask: What if the opposite happened?Imagining alternative scenarios helps refine future decisions.Considering what didn't happen is as important as what did.

Use Counterfactual Thinking

The best decisions focus on long-term success, not immediate results.Great decision-makers think beyond the next hand.

Set Long-term Goals

By thinking in bets, we move away from black-and-white thinking and make decisions based on probability, data, and continuous learning. Uncertainty isnt the enemy it's the foundation of smarter choices.

Emotions distort probability. Train yourself to stay logical, especially when stakes are high.Emotions can hijack good decision-making.

Train Yourself

Feedback from people who challenge your thinking helps improve decisions. Look for honest, smart, and rational thinkers.Find people who care more about getting it right than being right.

Surround Yourself with a Decision Group

Instead of going all in on a decision, test ideas with small, reversible bets to gather more information.Good decision-makers place a series of small, intelligent bets.

Make Small, Low Risk Bets

Life is unpredictable, and we rarely have all the information. Accepting uncertainty leads to better decision-making.Acknowledging what we don't know helps us make smarter choices.

Embrace Uncertainty

A structured decision-making process prevents emotional bias. We should analyze past decisions and refine our approach.Great poker players don't rely on luck; they rely on process.

Create a Decision Making Process

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke explores how decision-making is less about certainty and more about probabilities. By embracing uncertainty and thinking like a poker player, we can make smarter choices in business, life, and investing.

The goal isn't to be right all the time, but to improve the accuracy of our thinking. Being open to new information is key.Winning doesn't come from always being right. It comes from being less wrong over time.

Ditch the Need to be Right

Good decisions aren’t about certainty—they’re bets on the future. Think in probabilities, not absolutes.

A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

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Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is also a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute. In 2020, she joined the board of the Renew Democracy Initiative.

Think in Probabilities, Not Certainities

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