The Four Villains of Decision Making
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Not Making Good Decisions
We are exposed to biases that influence our ability to make good decisions.
- We are quick to jump to conclusions because we fail to search for information that might disprove our thoughts.
- We're overconfident. We look for information that fits our ideas and ignore information that doesn't.
Knowing these and other biases is not enough. We need a framework for making decisions.
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The Four Villains of Decision Making
- Narrow framing: The tendency to define our choices in binary terms. We ask, "should I, or shouldn't I?" instead of “What are the ways I could...?”
- Confirmation bias: People tend to select the information that supports their preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions.
- Short-term emotion: When we’ve got a difficult decision to make, our feelings occupy our minds. And this doesn't add any new information that could benefit us.
- Overconfidence: People often think they know more than they actually do about how the future will unfold.
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Defeating Decision-Making Villains
- Counter narrow framing by widening your options. Expand your set of choices.
- Confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. Analyze and test your assumptions to overcome the bias.
- Short-term emotion will tempt you to make the wrong choice. So distance yourself before deciding.
- Prepare to be wrong. Don't be overconfident about how the future will unfold.
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