The Four Villains of Decision Making

We are exposed to biases that influence our ability to make good decisions.

• We are quick to jump to conclusions because we fail to search for information that might disprove our thoughts.
• We're overconfident. We look for information that fits our ideas and ignore information that doesn't.

Knowing these and other biases is not enough. We need a framework for making decisions.

• Narrow framing: The tendency to define our choices in binary terms. We ask, "should I, or shouldn't I?" instead of “What are the ways I could...?”
• Confirmation bias: People tend to select the information that supports their preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions.
• Short-term emotion: When we’ve got a difficult decision to make, our feelings occupy our minds. And this doesn't add any new information that could benefit us.
• Overconfidence: People often think they know more than they actually do about how the future will unfold.