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The Four Villains of Decision Making
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Not Making Good Decisions
- We are quick to jump to conclusions because we fail to search for information that might disprove our thoughts.
- We're overconfident. We look for information that fits our ideas and ignore information that doesn't.
Knowing these and other biases is not enough. We need a framework for making decisions.
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The Four Villains of Decision Making
- Narrow framing: The tendency to define our choices in binary terms. We ask, "should I, or shouldn't I?" instead of “What are the ways I could...?”
- Confirmation bias: People tend to select the information that supports their preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions.
- Short-term emotion: When we’ve got a difficult decision to make, our feelings occupy our minds. And this doesn't add any new information that could benefit us.
- Overconfidence: People often think they know more than they actually do about how the future will unfold.
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Defeating Decision-Making Villains
- Counter narrow framing by widening your options. Expand your set of choices.
- Confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. Analyze and test your assumptions to overcome the bias.
- Short-term emotion will tempt you to make the wrong choice. So distance yourself before deciding.
- Prepare to be wrong. Don't be overconfident about how the future will unfold.
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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
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The 37%
Mathematics dictates that you should take 37% of the time or options you have to simply look and after that, you should commit to the first option that is better than everything you’ve ...
The brain when we make decisions
The 2 systems of the brain that wok during decision making:
- System 1 is automatic and quick (like "something feeling off").
- System 2 is deliberate and slow (like an algorithm).
At times, these systems are at odds with each other, but research shows it's always best to trust an algorithm than your own gut.
Pros-and-cons lists are flawed
There are a few biases they don't address:
- Narrow framing: the tendency to view an option as your only option.
- Confirmation bias: our tendency to gather the information that supports our preferred option.
- Short-term emotion: our tendency to have our judgment clouded when emotions run high.
- Overconfidence: our tendency to make a decision with too much optimism about how things will play out.
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A checklist for faster, better decisions
- Write down 3 existing company goals impacted by the decision;
- Write down at least 3 realistic alternatives;
- Write down the most important information you...
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Know and conquer your enemy
Our brain relies on cognitive biases over clear evidence. Cognitive bias is the tendency to make poor judgments in a consistent pattern. Our unconscious biases are often so strong that they...
Common cognitive biases
- The Dunning-Kruger Effect: You believe that you're smarter or more skilled than you are, which prevents you from admitting your limitations and weaknesses.
- Confirmation Bias: When you welcome information that you agree with while disregarding evidence that doesn't suit you — even if it's accurate.
- Self-Serving Bias: When you blame external forces when things are bad, but credit yourself when it's good.
- Optimism Bias: You believe you are more successful than others and won't experience any misfortune.
- Availability Heuristic: You believe that whatever comes to your mind quickly is the right decision.
- Attentional Bias: You only focus on some points while ignoring other aspects.
- False Consensus Effect: When you overestimate how much others will agree with you.
- Misinformation Effect: Your memory has been interfered with, changing how you recall past events.
Master self-care and self-awareness
Hungry, Angry, Lonely, Tired.
This acronym can be used by anyone to help you master self-care and self-awareness. It encourages you to pause and ask how you're feeling. Feeling hungry, angry, lonely, or tired makes you more vulnerable to self-destructive behaviors.