The Four Villains of Decision Making
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Knowing these and other biases is not enough. We need a framework for making decisions.
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Mathematics dictates that you should take 37% of the time or options you have to simply look and after that, you should commit to the first option that is better than everything you’ve ...
The 2 systems of the brain that wok during decision making:
At times, these systems are at odds with each other, but research shows it's always best to trust an algorithm than your own gut.
There are a few biases they don't address:
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Think outside yourself a little and pretend like you're offering advice.
The reasoning here is really simple: your short-term emotions get in the way of decisions, and that clouds yo...
We usually believe that the more information you have, the better decisions we can make. However, at some point, we cross a threshold where we have too much information. That's when we start to fill in gaps and add weight to information that doesn't matter.
This makes decision making way more difficult.
You're so prone to continue making the same kind of choices throughout your life that challenging yourself and doing the exact opposite is often the best way to get around this problem.
The idea here is to confront your default behavior, step outside your comfort zone, and use your imagination to test some completely new ideas.
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Our brain relies on cognitive biases over clear evidence. Cognitive bias is the tendency to make poor judgments in a consistent pattern. Our unconscious biases are often so strong that they...
Hungry, Angry, Lonely, Tired.
This acronym can be used by anyone to help you master self-care and self-awareness. It encourages you to pause and ask how you're feeling. Feeling hungry, angry, lonely, or tired makes you more vulnerable to self-destructive behaviors.
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... through everything you do. That's the power of compounding. If you get 1% better at understanding how the world works, how human behavior works, how economic systems function, and understanding your own brain — that 1% improvement impacts everything you do.
The best kind of knowledge is not ephemeral junk , that will be useless in a few years, but the core pillars of human knowledge and the major academic disciplines. That knowledge changes very slowly over time and it’s a core foundation that you can build upon and grow from.
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...are common thinking errors that harm our rational decision-making.
We don't always see things as they are. We don't simply glean information through the senses and act on it; inste...
Is our tendency to overestimate the odds of our own success compared to other people's.
Overly optimistic predictions can be dangerous, leading us to waste time and resources pursuing unrealistic goals. In the real world of business, things don't always work out for the best, and it serves us well to know when conditions are not on our side.
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The way you frame your decision at the outset can make all the difference.
State your decision problems carefully, acknowledge their complexity and avoid unwarranted assumptions ...
A decision is a means to an end. Ask yourself what you most want to accomplish and which of your interests, values, concerns, fears, and aspirations are most relevant to achieving your goal.
Decisions with multiple objectives cannot be resolved by focusing on any one objective.
Your decision can be no better than your best alternative.
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Our working memory is what allows us to focus on the information we need to get things done at the moment we’re doing them. It is also in limited supply. You can think of it like our brain’s computer memory. Once it’s used up, nothing more can fit in.
When you overanalyze a situation, the repetitive thoughts, anxiety, and self-doubt decrease the amount of working memory you have available to complete challenging tasks, causing your productivity to plummet.
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Being aware of your own biases doesn't mean you will be free of them. You need a system that will help prevent your proclivities from taking control.
It wasn't an individual that got people to the moon. It was all of NASA.
There should be recognition of how many people really should be involved and the need for mechanisms to deliver smarter decisions.
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