Getting Better by Being Wrong with Annie Duke - Deepstash

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Getting Better by Being Wrong with Annie Duke

fs.blog

  • Annie uses the example of poker, but it applies to other areas as well. There are uncertain systems where outcomes and decisions are loosely linked.
  • In poker, you can have the best hand and get crushed or a poor hand and win
  • How do you separate yourself from the outcomes and ...

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  • how are you constructing a model of your opponent?
  • how are you figuring out what the right strategy against them is?
  • how are you picking the signal out?

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  • Decisions --> actions --> outcomes --> rewards or pain (ie positive or negative consequences)

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  • We all have some sort of model(s) of how the world works and what's true and what's not
  • That's what we're always doing - building models so we can act in it with intention

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  • You need the pain in order for it to matter to you to learn
  • but pain can get in the way of learning
  • But when you're losing, your limbic system lights up and gets in the way of learning
  • It does not feel good to lose
  • It particularly gets in the way when ...

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  • Kanheman: we're all trying to create a positive narrative of our life story
  • Identity protective cognition
  • With the pain / loss, our identity gets attacked if we attribute it to our poor decision making
  • So instead, we attribute it to luck

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  • I'm willing to take this pain that doesn't feel very good because in the long run it's going to help me learn
  • I'm going to go in, examine my decision and see where I could have improved that would have increased the likelihood of a better outcome

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  • People are willing to take a discount to preserve their self narrative
  • They attribute the poor outcomes to luck
  • Socialised the result to the world, ie it wasn't my fault, the outcome wasn't in my control
  • You don't need to upda...

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  • I tell a "bad luck" story
  • You sympathise and then share your own
  • We both agree it was bad luck that was the cause
  • Neither one of us learns

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  • If you really lost because of bad luck, what's the point of telling a story about it
  • There's nothing you can learn from it

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  • If you're in a group of people who attribute outcomes to bad luck, you won't learn
  • Surrounding yourself with people who constantly seek to update their mental models puts you on a very different learning trajectory

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  • Even if you are aware of the biases, you're still susceptible to them
  • Smarter people who know about them are even worse because:
  1. Once they know about the bias, they're overconfident in thinking they can avoid them
  2. The...

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  • It's much easier to spot someone elses' bias vs your own

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  • Groups that have a confirmatory style of thought enable one another to not learn and preserve identity
  • Instead, create a group that has an exploratory style of thought
  • The goal of the group is to create a more accurate mental model of the world

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  • Reasoning to be right affirms your priors
  • Reasoning to be accurate helps develop a more accurate mental model of the world

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  • Getting a respected peer to think you're good, worthwhile to talk to, an equal --> that feels really good
  • The goal of each person is to make better decisions and increase the probability of better outcomes
  • Example: I won this hand of poker, but I think I played badly

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  • You know a conversation about the decisions you made is going to happen 
  • You want to have interesting things to ask later

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  • The idea that you're different from other people is an important feeling you get from your tribe
  • Since most people have confirmatory thinking, having a group that you identify with that values exploratory thinking helps you feel different and that you're doing something difficult

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  • We want to focus on accuracy, not on being right
  • We want to hold each other accountable
  • We want to disagree without being disagreeable
  • No one is defensive

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  • There's 100 learning opportunities and left to your own devices, you catch 5 of them
  • The learning pod helps you catch 5 more
  • That has a huge impact on your learning

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  • Knowing you're going to be accountable to a group helps you catch mistakes in the moment or right after making them
  • Gets you to recognize mistakes in a window that you can actually do something about it

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  • When someone disagrees with us, we can often feel it as an attack on our identity
  • That can cause disagreeableness because the information being told is perceived as a threat
  • Cause you to:
  • be defensive or angry
  • be dismissive
  • discredit the other person o...

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  • We've agreed that our beliefs are in progress and under construction
  • You are no longer certain about your beliefs
  • You have to be willing to hear the other side in order to make progress
  • Your identity becomes about acknowledging uncertainty, how good are you at...

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