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The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

Is our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task. Estimation mistakes can usually be attributed to 2 key factors:

  • Failing to consider how long it’s taken us to complete similar tasks in the past.
  • Assuming that we won’t run into any complications that will cause delays.

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Plan during the low point of your day

Plan during the low point of your day

And when your good mood is at its lowest point in the day. In that case, you may be feeling less optimistic, which could help you create more realistic estimates

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Use historical data

Use historical data

Start by asking: How long do such projects usually last?

If you’re coding a new feature for your company’s app, look at how long it took your team to build and release a similar feature in the past. If you’re writing a 4,000-word blog-post, review your data showing how many hours/day...

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The three-point estimation

It forces you to confront your possible optimism by asking you to identify 3 different pieces of data:

  1. A best-case scenario estimate
  2. A worst-case scenario estimate
  3. A most likely scenario estimate

Once you have your 3 numbers, c...

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205 reads

Leave space for the unknown

Leave space for the unknown

When estimating any task or project, you have to take all of these things into account: There are things you know will happen, things you know could happen, and things you never once considered might happen.

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Search outsiders' perspectives

Search outsiders' perspectives

While we tend to be optimistic about our own abilities to complete tasks quickly, we’re much more pragmatic when it comes to figuring out how long it will take someone else to complete a task.

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Once upon a time can happen any time.

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The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a novel; product managers miscalcula...

Planning Fallacy

The tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take to complete. 

On top of it, instead of accepting your own fault, you place the blame on outside factors such as delayed start dates or sick days.

The Planning Fallacy

We tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task despite knowing that previous tasks have taken longer.

What you can do about it:

  • Break projects down into smaller parts and estimat...

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