The Planning Fallacy - Deepstash
How To Become a Better Decision-Maker

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Understanding the importance of decision-making

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How To Become a Better Decision-Maker

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The Planning Fallacy

We tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task despite knowing that previous tasks have taken longer.

What you can do about it:

  • Break projects down into smaller parts and estimate how long each will take.
  • Add 20% to your project timeline. Finishing earlier than expected is better than being surprised by it.
  • Use historical data to make better predictions.
  • Limit the scope of the work. It means leaving off some things for a later stage.
  • When you're going to miss a deadline, communicate that early and often.

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We All Tend To Make The Same Mental Mistakes

We All Tend To Make The Same Mental Mistakes

Economists used to believe that people will always choose the option that maximizes their well-being. But people act against their rational self-interest all the time.

We procrastinate and eat junk food and say yes to the things we don't have time for. Two Israeli psycholo...

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6.85K reads

The Zeigarnik Effect

This effect describes our tendency to remember incomplete or interrupted tasks better than completed tasks. Each unfinished task takes up some of your attention, splitting your focus. It also interferes with your sleep.

What you can do about it:

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The Mere Urgency Effect

This bias addresses why we do unimportant tasks we think are time-sensitive over tasks that are not time-sensitive, even if the non-time-sensitive tasks provide greater rewards.

How to overcome this bias:

  • Use the Eisenhow...

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The Sunk Cost Fallacy

We want to finish what we've started because of previously invested resources, even if it is better to quit and use our limited resources elsewhere for better returns.

What you can do about it:

  • Every decision has two costs...

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Hedonic Adaptation

We quickly return to a relatively stable level of happiness despite positive or negative external events. We pursue a promotion and believe it will make us happy. When we get it, we are temporarily happier, only to get back to our baseline levels the next week.

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Present Bias

We tend to choose a smaller, immediate reward over a larger reward in the future. For example, playing video games is more enjoyable than writing or coding or designing.

What you can do about it:

  • Help your future self...

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2.35K reads

Complexity Bias

We are inclined to believe that complex solutions and explanations are better than simple ones. The perception of complexity often leads to avoidance.

What you can do about it:

  • Instead of seeking to understand a concept fully,

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2.29K reads

CURATED FROM

IDEAS CURATED BY

ethho

I wish I knew about the 80/20 rule much earlier.

Related collections

Other curated ideas on this topic:

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a novel; product managers miscalcula...

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

Is our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task. Estimation mistakes can usually be attributed to 2 key factors:

  • Failing to consider how long itโ€™s taken us to complete similar tasks in the past.
  • Assuming that we wonโ€™t run int...

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

The term 'planning fallacy' was coined in 1977 and deals with how most of us are terrible at estimating how long a project will take. We are overly optimistic but terrible at predicting the future. If the project has a budget, we may underestimate that expense to...

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