The Planning Fallacy - Deepstash

The Planning Fallacy

We tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task despite knowing that previous tasks have taken longer.

What you can do about it:

  • Break projects down into smaller parts and estimate how long each will take.
  • Add 20% to your project timeline. Finishing earlier than expected is better than being surprised by it.
  • Use historical data to make better predictions.
  • Limit the scope of the work. It means leaving off some things for a later stage.
  • When you're going to miss a deadline, communicate that early and often.

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ethho

I wish I knew about the 80/20 rule much earlier.

The idea is part of this collection:

How To Become a Better Decision-Maker

Learn more about timemanagement with this collection

Understanding the importance of decision-making

Identifying biases that affect decision-making

Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision

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The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a novel; product managers miscalcula...

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Is our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task. Estimation mistakes can usually be attributed to 2 key factors:

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