Separate decision quality from results - Deepstash

Bite‑sized knowledge

to upgrade

your career

Ideas from books, articles & podcasts.

Separate decision quality from results

People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. They're not the same thing. 

You can make a smart, rational choice but still get poor results. That doesn't mean you should have made a different choice; it simply means that other factors (such as luck) influenced the results.

You cannot control outcomes; you can only control your actions.

STASHED IN:

264

MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE

Becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker.

What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accur...

Why don't smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we don't have complete control over our lives — and we don't have all of the information. 

You can opt not to drink on New Year's Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive....

  • Learn to examine your own beliefs. If you're certain about something, explore the opposing viewpoint.
  • Build a network of trusted advisors. Draw on people from a variety of backgrounds and belief systems. 
  • When you make decisions, think of the future. Prac...

  • Stop thinking in terms of right and wrong. Few things are ever 0% or 100% likely to occur. Instead, we should think in bets.
  • Before we commit to a course of action, we should think about possible outcomes and how likely each of those outcomes is to occur. Every choice carr...

Discover and save more ideas by creating a

FREE

Deepstash account.

Develop a

reading habit

, save

time

and create an amazing

knowledge library

.

GET THE APP:

MORE LIKE THIS

  • Annie uses the example of poker, but it applies to other areas as well. There are uncertain systems where outcomes and decisions are loosely linked.
  • In poker, you can have the best hand and get crushed or a poor hand and win
  • How do you separate yourself from the outcomes and ...

2

STASHED IN:

44

Risk and Uncertainty

People often confuse risk with uncertainty. But the terms "risk" and "uncertainty" do not refer to the same thing.

  • Risk is precise and quantifiable.
  • Uncertainty is when the underlying system is not understood.

...

11

STASHED IN:

195

Incomplete information and over-estimation

  • Much of what you need to know in life is hidden from you. You need to make decisions, but is still the victim of chance or uncertainty.
  • We tend to over-estimate the role of our own skills. The more people overestimate the importance of their own ab...

2

STASHED IN:

323